tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-76282838582538884802024-03-13T13:35:08.930-05:00Runcible Cat's BazaarThe Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.comBlogger246125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-72664664845009943392023-04-03T11:42:00.001-05:002023-04-27T13:50:26.357-05:00Making your own funeral urn.<p> Last Sunday, I seized upon a great Ash Wednesday activity for any church congregation. I proposed the idea to my minister, and she thought it was great. The idea? Have everyone make their own funeral urn. Not that anyone will have an immediate need for such a thing. But sooner or later, we are all going to die. That's the point of Ash Wednesday: To remind us that we all die. It would be a craft activity, and everyone could participate, including the children. Just have everyone bring a one gallon plastic jug with a lid. And supply paste, paper, and crayons and scissors and old seed catalogues that have pictures of flowers. Let everyone decorate their own urn, and festoon it with slogans and prayers and epitaphs etc. Remind every person that their urn is their own personal project, and they can dress it up any way they like. After the exercise is over, you just take it home, put it on a shelf and forget about it and get on with your life. But every now and then, when you stumble across it, think about it and remember: LIFE IS SHORT. live it now! </p><p><span> I have already decided what to put on mine. Mostly, instructions for the dispersal of my ashes:</span></p><p><span><span> A TROUT STREAM FLOWING TOWARD THE SEA IS WHERE YOU SHOULD DISPOSE OF ME </span></span></p><p>So please respect my final wish: To feed the plants that feed the fish.</p><p>And as you slowly pour me out, please do not disturb the trout. </p><p>Then to the ocean I'll return, and leave behind this humble urn.</p><p>The dead zone of the Mississippi, will receive this ancient hippie.</p><p>And as a wave above me crashes, and diatoms consume my ashes,</p><p>In the churning green grey foam, I shall find my final home.</p><p><br /></p><p>And on the back I will write:</p><p>A microscopic moment on a pale blue dot,</p><p>Our histories can be written with a single jot.</p><p>An evanescent snowflake on a sea of time,</p><p>An existence void of meaning, if it didn't rhyme.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span><span> </span></span></p><p><span> </span></p><p><span><br /></span></p><p> </p><p><br /></p><p><span> </span> </p>The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-60160232592847714522019-04-12T15:14:00.000-05:002019-04-12T15:14:10.644-05:00The virtue of Nationalism, A book review.<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 16.866666793823242px; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">The Virtue of Nationalism</span></b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">( The following is a text of a paper I presented to the Cedar Valley Unitarian Universalists on April 7, 2019.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> Much of this sermon will be based on the book, <u>The<b>Virtue of Nationalism</b></u>, by Yoram Hozony. Mr. Hozony is an Israeli philosopher whose previous writings include <u>The Philosophy of Hebrew Scripture</u>and <u>The Jewish State:</u><u>The Struggle for Israel’s Soul</u>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">Over a year ago I began to notice a coordinated assault from media opinion makers against Nationalism, and the institution of the Independent nation itself. Every attempt is being made to convince you that Nationalism is the same as Fascism, or Militarism, or Racism, or perhaps other “isms” that we have not yet categorized. I decided that someone needed to say something in the defense of the national state; that is, the right of every people to self-determination, to live within the secure boundaries of their own country, making their own decisions, and when possible, living peacefully within a community of other nation states claiming the same rights. So I began looking for articles defending the virtue of Nationalism, and eventually found an article by Mr. Hozony.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">Let’s take a look at what Nationalism is and what its alternatives are. According to Hozony, there are three possible ways that political life can be organized: by anarchy, by independent nations, or by empires. That’s it. Anarchy does not mean chaos; it simply means the lack of any permanent standing government. An alternative to anarchy can happen when various tribes who share a common language, religion, or history band together to form an independent nation. In about 1,150 AD, the Iroquois tribes banded together to form the Confederacy of Six Nations. In the 20<sup>th</sup>Century, many independent nations were carved out of the remains of collapsed empires. In addition to anarchy and independent nations, we have a third possibility: the empire. Often, usually by conquest, nations are fused into empires, with the constituent nations having nothing in common at all, except being forced under the heel of a single emperor, or other command structure. So that is our choice: We can be Anarchists, Nationalists, or Imperialists. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">Most people do not want to be Anarchists, Nationalists, or Imperialists. So we invent different names for these options. We say, “I’m not a Nationalist; I’m a Patriot,” or “I’m not an Imperialist; I’m an Internationalist---or a World Federalist”—or whatever. But no matter what names we invent, it’s still the same three options. Things can be organized at the sub-national level, the national level, or the supra-national level. Those are the choices. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> It is only fairly recently that anyone tried to distance himself from the label “Nationalist” or from the idea for which it stood. George Washington was a Nationalist, as were all the signers of the Declaration of Independence. They dared to suggest that a small group of farmers had the right to break away from a powerful empire and have their own nation. By choosing nation over empire, they immediately became a beacon of hope for oppressed peoples everywhere and inspired other Nationalist revolutionaries—from Simon Bolivar, to El Kader, to Gandhi and Ho Chi Minh. The African leaders in the 1960s who led their people to independence from Britain and France all called themselves African Nationalists. And the whole world cheered them on, because “Nationalist” was not a dirty word then. When, in 1947, two thirds of the UN countries voted for the establishment of Israel, they did so out of Nationalism. They felt they were defending the right of the Jewish People, and of all people, to have their own nation. And for over two hundred years, all those who claimed the right to their own country felt they were claiming the moral high ground, and no one disagreed. When Woodrow Wilson defended the right of Poles and Czechs and Slavs to rule themselves, he was hailed as a champion of human rights.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> But all that changed. It had to be changed so that the European Common Market could become the European Union. To convince a dozen countries to give up their national sovereignty to some imperial bureaucrats would be a tough sell. People would have to be taught to question the legitimacy of Nationalism, and perhaps the legitimacy of the Nation State itself. This undermining of the legitimacy of the Nation State would begin by arguing that simply having independent nations was, in itself, the cause of Europe’s many wars. An empire, preferably labeled with a more polite euphemism, would put an end to all that. But Hozony says this requires a gross misreading of history. He argues that it was the European empires, not the independent nations, which caused wars. The Napoleonic wars were caused by Napoleon’s attempt to place all of Europe under a single Emperor. The Thirty Years War was fought against the Hapsburg empires of Spain and the Holy Roman Empire. Charlemagne’s Empire fought over 100 wars in Charlemagne’s own lifetime. But what about WWII? Wasn’t WWII about German Nationalism? Hozony says, “No; it was about German Imperialism.” This should be obvious from the name, “Third Reich.” After all, the “First Reich” was the Holy Roman Empire. In Hitler’s early years, when he was just trying to put Germany back together, nobody much cared. Even Britain supported the right of Germans to have their own nation back, and even to have an army. But when Hitler sent that army east and it became clear the he was trying to resurrect the German Empire, Britain joined battle against him. Hozony makes a pretty good case that Europe’s wars have been mostly caused by its empires. But historically, all empires have tried to sell imperial domination as the road to peace. So we have terms like “Pax Romana” and Pax Britainica.” But how does this peace come about? It usually comes about through a series of genocidal wars in which anyone who could fight back has been slaughtered. This is called “pacification.” I believe it was Tacitus who quoted a defeated Gallic general as saying to the Romans, “You make a desolation—and then you call it peace.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> The modern nation state is an invention of the Protestant Revolution. Prior to that time, the Western Church had continued the Roman dream of extending their empire to the entire known world. And like all empires before them, they assumed that placing all of humanity under a single authority (their own, of course) would be a boon to all mankind. But the Thirty Years War and the defeat of the Spanish Armada ended that dream of Christian unity. Most people assume that the Thirty Years War was about religion. But the allies who joined against<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> the Holy Roman Empire included not only Calvinist Holland, but Lutheran Sweden, and Anglican England, and also Catholic France. What was at stake was not just the right of each people to have their own religion, but also their own country. And the pattern of independent countries that came out of this war, what Hozony calls the “Protestant Construction,” was about what we have today---a world order where each nation claims the freedom to choose how to run its own affairs, in exchange for the implied promise to extend that same courtesy to its neighbors. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> So why did all these Protestants choose small independent nations when they could have banded together to form their own empire? It was because of what Hozony cites as a “historical accident.” In the early days of Christianity, a decision was made to include the <u>Hebrew Bible</u>, that is, the <u>Old Testament</u>, into the <u>Bible</u>. After the Reformation and the invention of the printing press, The <u>Bible</u>became the core of Protestantism, and Protestants read it entirely, <u>Old Testament</u>and all. Yet much of the <u>Hebrew Bible</u>is just a long historical narrative of how various evil empires oppressed the people of God. The message is clear: The people of God must have their own independent nation if they are to worship freely. So these Protestant groups all founded their own, fiercely independent nations. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">Hozony says that all the civil rights and human rights we now enjoy evolved within these independent nations; not a single one ever came from an empire. There have been empires that recognized such rights, but in every case, those rights were pre-existing before the country became an empire. And even those civil rights and democratic institutions which have been firmly established by a nation come under pressure when that nation becomes an empire, if these institutions conflict with the needs of empire. Rome started out as a republic, but as soon as it became an empire, it was ruled by a single, god-like emperor. Rome still had a Senate, but it was just a formality. So just as truth is the first casualty of war, democracy and civil rights are the first casualties of empire. Consider the people who were being tortured for information at Abu Ghraib. Were they enemy combatants, or were they civilian criminals? If they were enemy combatants, then, under the Geneva Convention, they should be required to divulge only their name, rank, and serial number. And if they were suspected criminals, then, as Americans, are we not obliged to respect their right to remain silent? So how can any Americans be asked to torture someone for information? They can’t, but it happened anyway because the needs of empire required it. We boast about how American hegemony is unchallenged, and how it’s the end of history. But we pay a price for that power.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">So if the very nature of an empire places it at odds with democratic institutions and civil rights, why does everybody want one? What is the big attraction? Why is the EU trying to transform itself from a loose trade association into a super-state, effectively an empire? One attraction is raw political power. But another is the supposed economic benefit. And that leaves us with two questions: Are the economic benefits as great as we might suppose---and who collects these benefits? By the mid-nineteenth century, the British Empire was at its peak. It was then that Marx and Engels wrote their famous critique of the conditions of the working class in England. And they described a mass of hopeless, overworked, starving wretches. Whatever the benefits of empire, they did not extend to workers. Yet Britain became a world power at the same time. At the beginning of the 20<sup>th</sup>century, the US began to be feared as a world power, not just for its military power, but for its economic might. Yet that was also the era of the Triangle Fire, of ten-year-olds mining coal, and the horrible meat packing houses described by Upton Sinclair in <u>The Jungle</u>. And the two go together. The way a country becomes a feared economic power is by gaining the ability to undersell all others. So a well-paid work force can’t really be part of the plan. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> But someone must gain from empires, or taxpayers would not pay the heavy price of maintaining them. Well, someone does gain. In Britain, the bankers gained, the ship owners gained, and the factory owners gained. Having the option of either re-investing in your own factory in England or in a factory in India gives you a great deal of leverage in dealing with your workforce. After the enactment of NAFTA, that same kind of leverage was used against workers here in Iowa. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> Since the end of WWII, the Western World has been drifting away from the nation state and more toward empires. To see how this is coming about, we have to take another look at the Protestant Construction. The Protestant construction was based on two ideas, both from the <u>Old Testament</u>: 1. To be a legitimate ruler, a king must meet certain moral minimum requirements: He must devote his life to the protection of his own people, and protect their life, their family, their property, their access to justice, and their right to publicly worship their God. 2. Nations have the right to self-determination, and to run their own affairs without foreign interference.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">But during the Enlightenment, at least two ideas arose that challenged this construction, and one was John Locke’s Liberalism. (I should pause to explain that the word “Liberal” to a European means almost the opposite as it has always meant in the US. I was raised to think I was a “Liberal” because my family voted for New Deal Democrats, and we were all Democratic Socialists, more or less. But In Europe, Liberal has more to do with “liberating” corporations and wealthy individuals to use their power without restriction. By European standards, it is the Republican Party that defends what Europeans call “Liberalism.” When I first started getting into online arguments with Europeans, it took me a while to wrap my head around this.) Locke claimed that there was no requirement for moral legitimacy except consent. Locke himself was a product of the Protestant Construction, and never intended to undermine it. But in fashioning his theory, Locke oversimplified or entirely omitted certain aspects of human nature, without which no political philosophy makes any sense. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">From high school civics class, to the PhD level, students are still taught the Lockean story of how states are born. We are told that, “While living in a state of perfect freedom and equality, each individual consents, together with countless other individuals, to form a government and submit to its dictates.” No university instructor or civics teacher believes this is true, but we still teach it. Perhaps we are seduced by its elegant simplicity. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">According to Hozony, the actual process of state formation is a lot more complicated and a lot less beautiful. It has to do with loyalties. We feel loyal to family members and feel obligated to them. Yet we did not consent to being related to any of them. In some societies, we might have loyalties to clans and tribes, or our community, or church, or our colleagues at work, or to our nation. We spend our whole lives in a web of interlocking loyalties that place obligations on us, and for the most part, we never consented to any of it. Clans exist because individuals are related to each other by blood, yet individuals feel loyalty because they transfer to the clan the loyalty they owe to their families. And when clans join to form tribes, members feel loyal to the tribe because they transfer the loyalty they owed to their clan. And when tribes join together to form a nation, tribal loyalty is redirected to the nation. And when empires are formed, the empire attempts to harvest the national loyalties of its constituent nations. So we see that when nations are formed, it is not just a random collection of people who have consented to something. Rather, nations are an aggregation of people who already have something in common—a shared language, a religion, shared historical experience, but most of all, shared loyalties. Our loyalties are arranged in concentric rings. But every time we expand outward to an additional ring, the bonds of loyalty become weaker and more tenuous. This became obvious in WWII, when Stalin asked Russians to fight to save the USSR. But the USSR was just an abstraction that few people were willing to die for. So then, he asked them to fight for “Mother Russia.” Twenty million were willing to die for Mother Russia. And it was American, British, and Russian <b>Nationalism</b>that defeated Hitler’s empire.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> The defect of Locke’s theory is that by imagining a world of totally unconnected consenting individuals, he ignores the bonds of loyalty which connect us all to each other, and these bonds are the glue which holds a society together. A nation cannot exist unless someone is loyal to it. And the loyalty a state enjoys is a distillation of the collective loyalty that all of its members feel for all of the collectives to which they belong, starting with their own families. But Locke’s theory does not admit that any of these collectives exist. For two hundred years, this theoretical defect did not affect the Protestant nations, because the bonds of loyalty to family and community were so strong that people took them for granted. But now, with urbanization, we are all becoming less connected. With the demise of communities, loyalty to the nation may be the last loyalty, other than family, that many people still feel. But when the last nations are gobbled up by empires, that too will be gone, and it will be every man for himself. This scenario will work very well for empires---but not for people. In opposition to this scenario is plain old Yankee Nationalism, and the biblical concept that nations owe something to their people, and people owe something to their nations. Yet this idea is now losing favor. As recently as the 1960s, Kennedy asked the nation to, “Ask not what your country can do for you---ask what you can do for your country,” and his words inspired a whole generation. Today, if some factory owner closes a factory and moves to a low-wage country, destroying the lives of the workers whose sweat and loyalty built that factory, no one even calls him out on it. And if someone dares to ask the man, “Where is your loyalty to your country,” he says, “Oh, I don’t think about country. I’m a citizen of the world.” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">How very convenient it is to be a citizen of the world. When you are a citizen of a nation, that citizenship comes with certain costs and obligations. But what is the price of “world citizenship?” Can the world tax you, or sent you a draft notice? Any corporation that has no loyalty to a nation probably has no loyalty to anything. They move assets from one country to another, screw the workers on both sides of the border, and then stash the profits in some tax haven in the Caribbean. Oh! And then they congratulate themselves on being “Citizens of the World.” And if the decline of nationhood does this for factory owners, what do you think it does for banks? As they say, “Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank---Give him a bank and he can rob the world.” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">A fault line now exists across the entire Western World, and it is not going away. It is the division between those who wish to retain our nationalist foundations, and others, mostly educated elites, who have to one degree or another become committed to a future under an imperial order of some kind, even if they don’t think of it in those terms. For centuries, the West has struggled between two opposite visions of world order: Independent nations, or a single regime enforced on all humanity. Hozony says, “The U.S., committed from its founding to the ideal of an independent nation state, was for the most part able to maintain this character till the Second World War. But in competition with the Soviet Union, especially after end of the Cold War, it has deviated from this model of national independence and has increasingly sought the establishment of a worldwide regime of law that would be enforced upon all nations by means of American power.” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">If we are moving from nationhood to empire, how far down that road have we come, where are we now, and is there still time to turn back if we wish to?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">The change to empire does happen instantaneously. In the 50s and 60s, we were the most powerful country on earth, but we did not think we had an empire, or that we wanted one. We believed that the Soviets had an empire----an evil one. But we saw ourselves as just doing what we had to do to counter that empire. But when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989, did we just say the Cold War was over and scale back our overseas involvement-- and go home and mind our own business? No; instead of scaling back our overseas involvement, we doubled down on it. Somehow, over the many years of fighting the imperialists, we had become the imperialists. Perhaps we had been the policeman of the world so long that we couldn’t imagine a world without one. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">Of course, we do not just project American power militarily; we also do it economically. After a century of sending the Marines into every little country that dares to defy us, we now have a nastier option----we send in the bankers. For years we have been undermining the economy of any country that refuses to take orders. After a few years this crashes the economy, people go hungry, and there is a revolution. Then we recognize whoever seems to be in charge as “the new government” and we buy them off. Something like this is going on right now in Venezuela. If you would like to read an insider’s account of how this works, read <u>Confessions of an Economic Hit Man</u>, by John Perkins. The techniques that Perkins describes are not new. They were developed by the British in the late 19<sup>th</sup>century after the Boer War. The British won that war, but it was so costly that they felt they needed a cheaper strategy than military action. If you would like a detailed look at this strategy, you might wish to read <u>A Century of War</u>by Wm. Engdahl.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">American imperialism has changed the world in many ways over the last half century, but the most frightening change of all is the way we have changed ourselves. There is a book by Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson, entitled <u>American Amnesia</u>which tracks the changes in American society over this period, especially changes in attitudes of American business leadership between the post-war years, and the globalized society we have today. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">The authors begin by comparing the views of GOP presidential candidate George Romney with those of his son, candidate Mitt Romney. George Romney had made his career in the auto industry and was president of American Motors. He believed that prosperity grew out of the cooperation and compromise between all stake-holders. He saw business, labor, and government as a 3-way partnership. As Governor of Michigan in 1962, he worked across party lines to raise the minimum wage, enact an income tax, increase educational spending, give collective bargaining rights to teachers, and raise welfare benefits for the poor and unemployed. And in 1968, he was a serious Republican contender for the presidency. And he was a mainstream Republican. What Romney did in Michigan was no different than the things Republican Governor Robert Ray was then doing in Iowa. As both a business leader and a Republican Party leader, George was absolutely mainstream. Now fast forward one generation, and we have his son, Mitt Romney, denouncing 47% of the American population as “moochers.” Mitt was also a business leader, but he managed a hedge-fund---not a factory. Instead of seeing a corporation as rooted in a community that depended on it, he saw it as an asset, to be bought, sold, or dismembered at will. So what happened? George and Mitt were father and son, and they were both business leaders, both Republicans, and both had been Governors of their own state. How could they be so different? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">What happened is that even during George Romney’s prime, some business leaders had begun a vicious campaign against government. And the major media outlets provided a platform for these views because, (you guessed it) they were owned by those same anti-government businessmen. And now, after a steady, 50 year drum beat of anti-government venom, nearly all business leaders and a large segment of the population believe this stuff. If some idiot says that we should shrink the government down to a size that will fit in a bath tub and then drown it, people actually cheer. The authors of <u>American Amnesia</u>claim that our business leaders and our people have simply forgotten that it was a partnership between government and business that built American prosperity in the first place. We did not become the richest country in the world by having a smaller or less active government. We did it with a larger and more active government. And that prosperity was very widely shared. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">There are, of course, some measurable ways in which the country is better now than 50 years ago, but for workers in general, opportunities were much greater a generation ago than they are today. The day I got out of high school in 1957, any high school graduate in Waterloo could be hired at either Rath’s or Deere’s and join the middle class immediately. As soon as you were old enough to sign a legal contract, you could buy a new tract house and a new car and marry your high school sweetheart. And your wife, if she wanted to, could stay home and have babies while you paid for the whole thing with one income. Today, you couldn’t do that even with a PhD. And these weren’t just clubs for white boys. Two of the highest paid departments at Deere’s were black majority departments. And the sliced bacon department where my aunt worked at Rath’s was a female majority department, and paid the second highest wages in the plant. Opportunities have declined. One would think that self-interest alone would persuade the elites to stop doing this to us. What good would it do to own every corporation in the country if there is no longer a middle class to buy the products of those corporations? But this is a classic case of the tragedy of the commons. While it is obvious that as a group, the elites are poisoning their own future by continuing to loot the corporate assets of the country, on any given day, any one corporation can make one more profit by looting one more asset. But why didn’t it work that way a generation ago? What was different then is the leaders themselves had a different attitude. George Romney once dismissed “rugged individualism” as just an excuse for personal greed. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> The authors of <u>American Amnesia</u>never give a satisfactory answer for the change in attitude. But the obvious explanation is that back then we were Nationalists. Oh, we didn’t use that label, but that’s what we were. Most of the leadership in both business and government were veterans of WWII. They saw themselves as citizens of this nation, and they understood that this comes with certain obligations. They had put their lives on the line every day for four years fighting for the survival of this nation, and they didn’t do it so that a handful of millionaires could become billionaires. American victory had only been possible because every American had joined in the effort, so they saw all Americans as team-mates. But the next generation lost this sense of Nationalism, because they had been seduced by the lure of empire.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">What corporate moguls find so annoying about national boundaries is that each separate country comes with its own government, its own legislature, its own courts, and its own chief executive, all sworn to serve the interests of a particular population--and subject to be removed from office by that same population. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">Let’s imagine a heated discussion between two corporate moguls: <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">1<sup>st</sup>Mogul: “I just got back from Elbonia, and do you know what those clowns are doing to me? They are shutting down the new plant I just spent 200 million bucks on. Something about some chemical in their drinking water. Who do these jokers think they are? Do they have any idea who they’re dealing with?”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">2<sup>nd</sup>Mogul: “So, if there was an environmental risk, why did they give you a permit to build it?”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">1<sup>st</sup>mogul: “Well, I bought off the Review Board---the whole damn board---cost me a fortune. But now they’ve been removed from office, and there’s a new board.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">2<sup>nd</sup>Mogul: “Removed from office? By whom?”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">1<sup>st</sup>Mogul: “By the people. They had a damn election. My God! I can’t believe people still do that.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">2<sup>nd</sup>Mogul: “So what’s the answer?”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">1<sup>st</sup>Mogul: “The answer is we’ve got to get rid of all these so called “independent nations” Who needs ‘em? Oh, I’d let ‘em have their national boundaries. I’d let them pretend to be in charge of something. But it’s all those damn legislatures! I can usually buy them off, but there’s always the risk that a few of them might start listening to the people who elected them, instead of to me. I hate that risk. Look at it this way: Just fixing things in one country was never easy---but we did it. We bought off a solid majority of both houses of Congress, which wasn’t cheap. You can’t believe what it costs to buy a Congressman these days. And we took over the courts, which took over 40 years, because those guys are appointed for life. But we did it. And our stooges on the Supreme Court have found us a constitutional right to buy elections. And we have our own idiot in the White house. But that only fixes one country. I do business in 20 countries. Do I have to go through this 19 more times? And what if some stupid little country turns out not to be…well….You know…<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">2<sup>nd</sup>Mogul: “Not corruptible?”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">1<sup>st</sup>Mogul: “Don’t use that word. Let’s just say, “Willing to deal””<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">2<sup>nd</sup>Mogul: “Aren’t people always willing to deal? Do people ever refuse suitcases of $100 Bills?”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">1<sup>st</sup>Mogul: “They might under the right circumstances---If there were a surge of some kind of…Patriotism.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">2<sup>nd</sup>Mogul “ And what could cause that?” <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">1<sup>st</sup>Mogul: “Oh, Nationalism could cause it. It’s a powerful motivator. People die for it. Nationalism made 20 million Russians die to stop Hitler.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">2<sup>nd</sup>Mogul: “But isn’t Nationalism dead?”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">1<sup>st</sup>Mogul: “No; it’s just sleeping. We need it dead---dead with a stake through its heart. Nothing is more dangerous to profits than democracy. Fortunately, we’ve gotten rid of most of that. But one outbreak of Nationalism and it could all be back. We can’t allow that. We don’t just need a war against government---we need to make war against the independent nation states that <u>have</u>governments. Democracy comes from governments, and governments come from nations. Get rid of nations and you’re rid of governments. Get rid of governments and you’re rid of democracy. “<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">2<sup>nd</sup>Mogul: “But will people ever give up their assemblies?”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">1<sup>st</sup>Mogul: “Oh, we’d let them keep all that. They can have their little parliaments and their courts, and they can meet every year and pretend to do something. But the important thing is to make sure that all the important decisions have already been made, and locked into some international treaty that supersedes all their laws and all their courts---and even their constitution. That way you don’t have to worry about all these so called “democratic institutions.” They won’t count anymore. We won’t even bother to buy them off.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">So much for our little dialogue: So where are today? Will we ever come to a point where we transfer all our democratic rights to some international corporate syndicate? Where have you been? We already did that. That’s what NAFTA was all about. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">Right now, under NAFTA, if we pass any law, any environmental restriction, labor law, anti-trust ruling or patent ruling, or any law whatsoever, if some multi-national corporation thinks it will make less profit as a result of that law or that court ruling, the U.S. must either repeal the law or overturn the ruling, or pay that company all the money it thinks it might have made if the law had not been passed. And if we refuse to pay, they can take us to court, but not any U.S. Court. According to the “dispute resolution clause” no U.S. court has jurisdiction. The matter is handled by an international panel of corporate representatives, who meet in secret. Each country gets to appoint only one member to this panel, and the injured parties have no right to be present.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> Perhaps the best time to have delivered a sermon on Nationalism, (or perhaps the risk of removing it) would have been 20 years ago. But none of these source materials I used even existed then. One of the inspirations for this sermon was the current issue of <u>Foreign Affairs</u>magazine, which has devoted the entire issue to this topic. They have half a dozen articles on Nationalism, all written by the kind of noted scholars and authors who are usually asked to contribute to publications of this sort. But since this issue has only been on the stands for about a month, there is really no way I could have presented this material any sooner. Sorry.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> But Confucius says, “The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago; the second best time is now. Thank you for your attention.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-10520740231562429082017-03-18T13:31:00.001-05:002017-03-18T13:31:41.072-05:00Book Review---A Shadow at the Gate, by Don Bloch.<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: 'San Francisco', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, '.SFNSText-Regular', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: -0.23999999463558197px;"> I have a book suggestion for those of you that would like a fun and fascinating read to take your mind off politics. It's "A Shadow at the Gate" by Don Bloch. Imagine growing up on a farm, as one of 18 children, in a Minnesota German Catholic immigrant ethnic enclave so insular that even after WWII, none of the adults ever speak English at home or to each other----even though they could. (They learned it in school, but refuse to use it). Imagine a group so fiercely Catholic that one farmer fears he will go to hell because he hired a non-catholic trucker to haul his hogs to market. Don grew up near Albany Minnesota, went to a one room school, and then was sent to a monastery high school and college/seminary to become a priest. But being unsure if he wants to give up the world, (Hell, he's never even seen the world) he bails out of the seminary to become a hobo, and with no money, he travels the country and lives with bums and hippies till he joins the Air Force to avoid being drafted. And he becomes a jet pilot. He writes masterfully, and every detail comes alive. The farm life----like, how do you stuff a prolapsed uterus back into a cow? The monastery----why do boys who want to become priests steal from each other? The life on the road with hobos----How do you learn the complicated craft of becoming a hobo, and using freight trains to get around? And flying jets----how do you you navigate when you are flying at tree top level at nearly the speed of sound? It is not great literature, but it's a real page turner. And it's a cheap paperback.</span>The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-50316647680375695942016-11-28T10:23:00.000-06:002016-12-07T17:02:05.076-06:00Destiny Disrupted: A book review<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Cat's Book Review:</span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Destiny Disrupted:</span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">A History of the World through Islamic Eyes, </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>by Tamim Ansary.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Book Review.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Part One. Mr. Ansary's book is a purely secular history---it has nothing to do with religion, and neither does this review. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This post is the transcript of a lecture in three parts delivered as a sermon at The Cedar Valley Unitarian Universalists, in Cedar Falls Iowa, in November of 2016. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Note: Just read the first page of Part One. Then, if it looks interesting to you, read the rest.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
book, <u>Destiny Disrupted</u>, is by Tamim <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ansary,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>an Afghan who has lived in the West for 38 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mr. Ansary has spent his professional life
editing text books,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>mostly history
texts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once, when Mr. Ansary had just completed a new
high school level world history text, his publishers objected to the fact that
out of 33 chapters, he proposed 3 chapters on Islamic history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They thought that one chapter should
suffice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After all, why should a world
history book <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>spend one tenth of its ink
on that "Moslem stuff"?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Wait
a minute. In a world with 1.5 billion Muslims, who for 1,200 years dominated <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>half of Asia and half of Africa, why would one
tenth be too much? Ansary <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>complains that
the West has made a deliberate effort to remain as ignorant of the Islamic
world as possible--- and this ignorance is mutual. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People growing up in Islamic countries know
just as little about us as we know<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>about
them, and their leaders intend to keep it that way. In the US, high school
graduates might have a vague idea who Mohamed was, but have probably never
heard of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Umar Ibn Al Kathab, Akbar the
Great, or Mustafa Kemal. Any high school graduate in the Islamic world would
know exactly who these figures were.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
although they would be aware of Jesus of Nazareth, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>most have never heard of Julius Caesar,
Charlemagne, or George Washington.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For centuries, this mutual ignorance made no difference
because the world of East and West would rarely <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>intersect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the world is getting smaller
every day---- so perhaps we should take a better look at each other.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
most amazing thing about the development of East and West, is that until fairly
recently, our worlds were nearly parallel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>We both have a recorded history that begins in the Fertile Crescent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After that, we both had a bunch of Bronze Age
empires that rose and fell, and then we both had a classic period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the West, it was Rome.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the East, in was the Khaliphate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both were empires that spanned half the
civilized world, and lasted for hundreds of years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both, at one point, spread a common language
and a common faith over the extent of its realm. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And both were destroyed by barbarian invasions
from the north.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the West, it was
Germans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the East, it was Turks and
Mongols.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And after the destruction,
both had a landscape sub-divided into small kingdoms, but still unified by
faith and language. And both had a period of scientific awakening, where they
led the world in science and technology. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Originally,
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both worlds were built around trade
routes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the West, these were the sea
routes of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To the East, the trade routes
were the overland routes-- the caravan routes from Egypt to Mesopotamia or
Anatolia,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to Persia and India,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>or across the silk road to Central Asia and
China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The one place where these two
worlds overlap is Palestine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Levant had
the main trade route in and out of Egypt, and also the easternmost <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mediterranean seaport.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since this is where the two worlds collide,
it has been a political hot spot for millennia. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> (end of page one)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Ansary<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>gives us a few chapters on the early life of
Mohamed, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and on the early years of Islam.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mohamed was born in Mecca about the year
570 AD, in an area that was on the fringes of two decaying empires----The
Byzantines and the Sassanid Persians.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Byzantines would continue in some form till 1453, but even by 600 AD<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>they were well into a long decline.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though there were Jews, Christians, and Zoroastrians
in this area,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>most worshiped tribal
gods, and Mecca was a city of shrines to dozens of them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mohamed's father died before he was born,
and his widowed mother died six years later, so he was raised by an uncle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His uncle was kind to him, but he always
felt he was treated badly by the rest of the community. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to Ansary, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the first take-away thing to remember about
Mohamed is that he grew up feeling that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">people just don't treat widows and orphans
properly</b>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When Mohamed was 25, a wealthy widowed
business woman named Khadija hired him to look after her caravans, and later
they married.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This marriage lasted 25
years until Khadija died, and during that time Mohamed took no other wives.
Mohamed<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>became successful and respected,
but at the age of 40, he grew troubled and began to ponder the meaning of
life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He wondered,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>"In a world bursting with wealth, why
were there widows and orphans with barely enough to eat."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He began spending his evenings thinking about
this, usually <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in a cave near town.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And one night he had a vision----he believed
that the Angel Gabriel had appeared to him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He ran home frightened and told his wife about it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Khadija believed that the vision was real,
and advised him to obey it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He had many more visions in the same cave,
and eventually began preaching the message that he believed he had
received:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">That there was only one God---</b>a<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">nd
you must</b> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">submit to His will or be
condemned to Hell</b>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now, you may
think that this would be a fairly non-controversial idea, and among the Jews
and Christians it was, as they were already mono-theists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Mecca was then a center of shrines to
dozens of gods,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and the pilgrimage trade
was one of the town's two main industries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Then Mohamed began preaching that submitting to the will of God meant
giving up alcohol and debauchery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unfortunately,
alcohol, gambling, and prostitution was the town's other main industry, so the
city fathers became quite annoyed with Mohamed and tried to shut him up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mohamed had the protection of his uncle, who
was a clan leader.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in 622, his wife
died, and so did his <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>uncle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And when another uncle became clan leader, he
announced that Mohamed did <u>not</u> have his protection. Still in 622,
Mohamed learned of an assassination plot against him-- and left town. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This flight from Mecca is called the Hejira,
and is the starting point of the Islamic calendar. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When
Mohamed left Mecca in the middle of the night<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>with two loyal friends, Abu Bakr, and Othman,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>he went to a town two hundred miles north
called Yathribe, later named Medina.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He
did not choose this destination at random.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In his years at Mecca, Mohamed had acquired a reputation as a skilled
negotiator and a fair and impartial arbitrator.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Yathribe then had a tribal dispute involving several tribes, and they
needed someone to diffuse<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>this dispute
before it erupted into open war. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only an outsider could do this, so a committee
of town elders had come to Mecca and begged Mohamed to take the case.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They offered him full authority to settle the
matter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So when Mohamed and his companions
arrived in Yathribe, they were not just weary travelers---they were honored
guests.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mohamed immediately sat down
with the various tribes and hammered out an agreement that brought a lasting
peace. The tribes signed a compact in which they agreed not to attack each
other. They also agreed on methods<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>for
settling purely internal tribal disputes <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and for arbitrating inter-tribal matters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And they agreed on religious freedom for <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>all citizens.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And everyone, Muslim and non-Muslim alike, agreed to come to the defense
of Medina if it should be attacked.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
compact was called the Compact of Medina, and is thought by some to be the
world's first constitution.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Soon
all of Mohamed's followers from Mecca had arrived in Medina, including his huge
bodyguard , Omar, and his son-in-law Ali. But they all arrived penniless and
homeless.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In leaving Mecca, they left
behind their land and their businesses, and cut themselves off from their
families. (Hejira means the severing of ties.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Mohamed<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>appointed a local Muslim convert
to act as a liaison to these displaced Meccans, and help them start a new
life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Soon they had founded a community
which cared for its members---a collective of sorts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And they called it the Umma. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This Umma was the fruit of Mohamed's conscious
attempt to form a just community;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a
community where all members were equal, respected, and protected;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and where no member would ever be
abandoned.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Which brings us to the second take away about
Islam:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is not just an individual path
to salvation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its members believe that
it <u>is indeed</u> a path to individual salvation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it
is more than that:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it's a social
contract.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From the very beginning, it
was intended to be a very specific blueprint for a just community, a just
society, and a just world. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>So
how well did this "Umma" work?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For the first 35 years or so, it succeeded beyond anyone's wildest dreams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because of Mohamed's personal charisma, he
had been able to bring<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>peace, and had
become a local hero in Medina.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All of
Medina except the three Jewish tribes joined the Umma, and were willing to
follow<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mohamed wherever he led.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But soon the leaders of Mecca decided that
something had to be done about Mohamed, so they launched a series of little
wars against Medina, and lost every time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the first battle, the Muslims were outnumbered three to one, but won
easily.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the final battle, the Meccans
brought 10,000 men and laid siege to Medina, but still lost.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the local folk lore was that Mohamed could
not lose because God was on his side.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Soon, people from the whole region were converting to Islam. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
a few more years, Mecca surrendered to the Muslim leadership and destroyed
their idols. <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And as the area administered by Muslims
expanded exponentially, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>so did the area
that lived in peace, often for the first time in memory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As the energies<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>formerly devoted to war were available for
other uses, the prosperity of the Umma increased.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At some point<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Muslims began thinking of the world as divided into two sectors: The <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dar al Islam- --the realm of submission to God--
and the Dar al Harb--the realm of mindless war.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And many Muslims still think of the world in those terms today.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>After
arriving in medina, Mohamed received additional revelations<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and solidified the Muslim code of conduct---the
Five Pillars.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To be a Muslim, one must:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Acknowledge
that there is only one god, and Mohamed is his prophet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Say
specific prayers five times a day.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fast
from dawn to dusk during the month of Ramadan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Make
a pilgrimage to Mecca once in a lifetime, if able.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Give
to charity according to one's ability.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">That last one merits our
attention.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is not just
encouraged----it is required.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you
fail to do this, you are, by definition,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>not a Muslim.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Mohamed
also re-married, to ten women, mostly for political reasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He married the daughters of his close
associates, unless they had already married his.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of his first four successors, all four were
either his fathers-in-law or his sons-in-law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In Arab society, one solidifies political alliances by intermarriage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And when polygamy is allowed, this allows
room for a lot of politics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By the time
he died, Mohamed controlled Mecca, Medina, and a strip along the Arabian coast which
connects them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This area is called the
Hejaz.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Mohamed
died in 632, and was succeeded by Abu Bakr,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>an old friend, early supporter, and father-in-law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The little empire started to fly apart when
Mohamed died, But Abu did a clever job of holding it together. Mohamed's
son-in-law Ali had always<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>assumed he
would be the successor, and he had a constituency within the Umma who backed
him, and there was some resentment about Ali not being chosen. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Ali was still young, and Abu was middle
aged.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Young Arabs do not order their
elders around, so Ali cheerfully accepted the situation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Besides, Abu was doing a good job as Khalif.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
when Abu died in 634, Ali was again passed over and the job went to Omar Ibn al
Kathab, another of Mohamed's <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>fathers-in-law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Members of the community had assumed that
Omar was just a tough old soldier.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
upon becoming Khalif, he proved to be a wise, humble,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and compassionate ruler, besides being a
military genius.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In his ten year reign,
he made the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dar al Islam larger than the
Roman Empire at its peak. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It included
Egypt, all of the Arabian peninsula, and all of Persia.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ali's supporters were again irritated,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but who could object to old Omar?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He accepted almost no salary, wore old
clothes which he patched himself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>(Sometimes doing this task during meetings with heads of state.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And when he needed more money, rather than
accept a higher stipend, he would <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>hire
himself out milking the neighbor's cows.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Omar treated all members of the community as his equals;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and he referred all local decisions to a
committee of elders and had the decisions ratified by the assembly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And Omar was equally wise in dealing with the
newly conquered territories. He forbad his soldiers from seizing<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>property of common citizens, or even buying
land from them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And he ordered absolute religious
tolerance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While he did impose a
special tax on all non-Muslims <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(the
Jezia ), <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it was usually less tax than
they were accustomed to paying,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and they
were excused from paying the charity tax imposed on all Muslims.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And most of the money squeezed out of the
provinces was invested in infrastructure there. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Omar built roads, bridges, canals, and over
5,000 mosques. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When
Omar died in 644, Ali was again passed over, this time for Othman, another old
friend of Mohamed's, and one of his sons-in-law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many of Mohamed's followers in Mecca had
been wealthy, but by coming to Medina had abandoned it all. But when Othman
left Mecca for Medina, he did not lose everything. Being of the powerful <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Umayyad family, he had such widespread
holdings that his Mecca interests were only a small part of his estate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the early years of the Umma, Othman had
been very generous and provided the Umma with funds at a time when they were
needed. And perhaps the Umma felt they owed him for that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By the time <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Othman died in 656, the Dar al Islam extended from
Morocco to India, and north into <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Afghanistan, the Caucasus, and much of Central
Asia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And Othman was good at increasing
revenue---perhaps too good. He did not want the money for his personal use; he
lived on bread and water and wore rags.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But his high taxation provoked unrest<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>and a riot in which he lost his life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>With angry mobs rioting in the streets of Medina, they finally asked Ali
if he would like to be Khalif.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He told
them to go to hell.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But they begged, and
he finally relented.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ali did all the
right things, but it was too late.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Before it was all over, there would be a full scale rebellion, more
assassinations,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a war of succession with
Muslim fighting Muslim and tens of thousands dying, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and a bitter split that would persist to this
day between what would become the Sunni and Shiite factions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When
the fighting ended, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the victor who
claimed the title of Khalif was one of Othman's<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Umyyad relatives, a clever, charming, and utterly ruthless fellow named
Mu'ma'wiya, the governor of Damascus.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He claimed the title simply because he had the largest army.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And he proclaimed that there would be no more
wars of succession as his successor would be his son. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So what started as a faith-inspired social
compact ended as just another imperial bureaucracy<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>headed by hereditary despots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not that the Umayyads were especially bad
despots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Actually, they knew how to run
things because, as wealthy businessmen, they had always run things. Mu'ma'wiya
moved the capital to Damascus and made Arabic the official language of the
whole empire. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By giving the empire a
common language, trade improved and administration became more efficient. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Camelot was over.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mohamed had founded a compassionate,
democratic society where all Muslims were equal, and where there was a place in
public life for everyone, including women.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And it was a place where succession was based on merit, and where those
seeking high office were not petty thugs jockeying for power or wealth,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but honest, humble, <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">and pious men who believed that God
had asked them to build a just society, and that Mohamed had given them the
blueprint.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And it had actually
worked---for about a generation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>As
the Umayyad empire grew wealthy, scholarship, art, and literature
flourished.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even under <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Omar,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>scholars had been hired to begin making an orderly record of the preachings
of the Prophet (the Q'uran), <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and also of
statements Mohamed had made in casual conversation, (the Hadith). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And from this work, the third Khalif created
the single authorized edition of the Q'uran used today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in
750, there was a revolution against the Umayyads, and the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Abbasids </b>seized power and slaughtered the whole Umayyad clan,
except for one man who escaped to what is now Spain, and established a separate
khaliphate there. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A year later the
Abbasids pushed into Kazakhstan and fought the Chinese.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Two of
the Chinese soldiers taken prisoner <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>revealed
the secret of paper-making. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Within a
few years every city in Dar al Islam had a paper mill.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With a supply of cheap paper,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Islamic scholars were soon cranking out
multiple copies of every ancient text they could get their hands on, and
sending them to Islamic libraries across the realm. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 859, Fatima al Fihri, a wealthy Muslim
widow founded Al Qarawiyyin University (al-<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Car</b>-a-wee-yen)
in Fez, Morocco.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is the world's
oldest university, and the first of many excellent Islamic seats of higher
learning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a young man, Pope Sylvester
II studied there, and after becoming pope he reformed European education by
introducing the decimal system and Arabic numerals, and re-introducing the
abacus.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Collectively, these institutions
also gave Europe Algebra, the astrolabe, and improvements in chemistry,
medicine, and astronomy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
the early Abbasid period, there were three main Muslim intellectual movements <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>competing for influence: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the clerical scholars,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the natural philosophers,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and the Sufi poets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The clerics hoped to find revealed
truth,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the philosophers hoped to
discover scientific truth, and the Sufis hoped to find spiritual truth, through
mental exercises aimed toward immediate religious experience, the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>feeling of God's presence within. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And each group had a natural constituency. The
common people usually gravitated toward either the clerics or the Sufis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the Abbasid<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>rulers preferred the council of
scientists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shortly after seizing
power, the Abbasids built a new capital city at Bagdad, and within 50 years it
became the largest and richest city outside of China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By
1,065, Bagdad was a university town and a center of intellectual ferment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Among
the philosophers, the Mu'tazilites claimed that reason could reveal truths that
could never be found in scripture, because revelation could not possibly cover
the details of every situation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet any
revealed truth, if really<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>true, could
eventually be revealed by reason. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the
study of scripture was irrelevant. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Mu'tazilites frequently argued with the clerical Asharites on this point, and
they always won because they had studied Greek logic and rhetoric and knew how
to argue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even the Khalifs <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>accepted the Mu'tazilite argument and strongly
supported its wide adoption.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then along
came al Ghazali, born 1,065.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Al Ghazali
was probably the most brilliant mind of his age, and we owe a lot to him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He didn't like the Mu'tazilites and decided
to beat them at their own game. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He immersed himself in Greek philosophy<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and wrote a text on Greek philosophy called <u>The
Aims of the Philosophers</u>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This book
later found its way into Europe and was so lucid an explanation of Aristotle
that it became a standard text for centuries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But in his original edition, he added a cover which explained that he
did not actually believe any of it; it was all rubbish, and he could prove it
and intended to do so in his next book.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But the cover letter never made it to Europe, nor did the second
book.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Europe received it as a strongly
pro-Aristotle treatise. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
in his second book, he attacked reason by saying that the presumed relationship
between cause and effect cannot actually be proven.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We assume that fire burns cotton because whenever
we see cotton burning, fire is present.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But this only proves contiguity, not causality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What if it burns because God makes it burn, and
fire is present because God wills it to be present? (As silly as this sounds,
David Hume uses a similar argument.) But many proclaimed that al Ghazali had
won the day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If there is no provable
relationship between cause and effect, then science is absurd, and we might as
well just rely on scripture. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Al Ghazali
was appointed to head a prestigious institute and showered with wealth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now, this did not, by any means, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>put the philosophers out of business, at
least, not immediately.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it did make
the rejection of science respectable. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Ansary
says <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(and I'll quote the whole
paragraph, because I think it speaks a great deal <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to us today), <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>"The
assumption that many shades of gray exist in ethical and moral matters allows
people to adopt thousands of idiosyncratic positions, no two people having
exactly the same beliefs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in times
of turmoil, people lose their taste for subtleties and their tolerance for
ambiguity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Doctrines that assert
unambiguous rules promote social solidarity because they allow people to cohere
around shared beliefs, and when no one knows what tomorrow may bring,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>people prefer to clump together."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
Islam was about <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to enter an age where no
one knew what tomorrow would bring. The empire was at its peak, but was <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>falling apart.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Iberia had its own Khalifate since the last Umayyad fled to there. And
then the Egyptians founded their own<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Fatimad Khalifate. And the northern borders were under sporadic attack
by Turks---so much so that the Bagdad Khalifate was hiring Turkish mercenaries
to repel them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Umayyads had fallen
because, in the end, there were very few left who were willing to fight for
them, and a growing number who were willing to fight against them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Abbasids held power for 500 years, but
toward the end, they had the same problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They were <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>seen as just another
corrupt, decadent empire, whose Khalifs lived in luxury, drank wine, and kept
concubines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How was this Islam?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Finally, a tide of Mongols destroyed the
city of Herrat, killing all 1.7 million men, women, and children.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And in 1,258, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>they leveled Bagdad, and killed another 2.5
million.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was a holocaust---a <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>genocide. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
a faith-based society, people naturally <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>assume that their early victories prove that
there is a god, and God is on their side.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And as long as they continue to win, they can continue believing this
narrative.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if victory means that God
is on our side, what does defeat mean? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Historically, there have been three possible answers
to this conundrum: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(1.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our God does not exist.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Would anyone ever accept such an
answer?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Norse apparently did.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You don't see a lot of people worshiping Odin
these days. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>( 2.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>We lost, not because God has abandoned us, but because of our own
stupidity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We should get better weapons
and a better strategy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This would be a
typical modern Christian reaction.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>( 3.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>God is angry, because we no longer serve Him
in the correct manner.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We must reverse
all changes in our society that have occurred since that last time we were winning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was the story used by the Hebrew
prophets, and is the reaction of most faith-based societies. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this last was
the reaction of Islam.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the face of
this horrible, genocidal disaster, they turned away from the world and turned
inward, back to a simpler faith of an earlier time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
that was eight hundred years ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Islam
didn't end---there are 1.5 billion Muslims today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, what happened in that eight hundred
years, and how does it affect Islam's modern view of itself and its view of the
West?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That will be the subject of part
two.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><br />
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Destiny Disrupted:</span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> <i>A History of the World through
Islamic Eyes,</i> by Tamim Ansary.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> A Book Review.
Part Two.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> We
ended Part One with the destruction of Bagdad in 1258, and the genocidal
slaughter of millions of Muslims at the hands of Mongol invaders. And we considered how the Muslims of the
13th century, in the face of this disaster, turned away from the world and
retreated into the simple faith of an earlier time. But Muslims had already suffered a humiliating invasion and
slaughter 160 years earlier at the hands
the Christian Crusaders. Yet even the
Crusader invasion was preceded by, and probably caused by a slightly earlier
invasion by Seljuk Turks.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">So in this part, we'll talk about all
three of these invasions, the Seljuk, the Crusaders, and the Mongols, and how
they affected the world of Islam and their view of the outside world. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> In
1071, a family of Turks called the Seljuk
invaded Anatolia and smashed the Byzantine
emperor's 100,000 man army and took the emperor prisoner. They later released him, sent him home, and
advised him not to be so silly as to attack them again. These Turks had already converted to Islam,
but that would in no way dissuade them from conquering Muslim empires, and they
immediately moved against what was left of the Abbasid empire. The Seljuks had just emerged from their
Central Asian steppe homeland, and were too illiterate to actually manage an
empire, so they hired Persian Viziers as
administrators, and Arab clerics as
religious advisors. They swept through
the Abbasid heartland of the Arabian peninsula,
taking all except Palestine, which was already in the hands of the
Egyptian Fatimid Khalifate. For the
Jews and Christians who lived in Jerusalem,
being ruled by Fatimids was not unpleasant, as these were the most tolerant Muslim rulers
one could hope for. They had learned to
be tolerant because in their own realm of Egypt were Jews, two kinds of
Muslims, and three kinds of Christians.
But the Holy Land soon fell to the Seljuks, who were among the least tolerant Muslim
rulers. The Seljuks were recent
converts to Islam, and recent converts
often tend to be zealots. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Though
the Seljuks had smashed the old order, they had not yet replaced it with
anything. Like most barbarian
invaders, Seljuk kings divided
everything they conquered among all their sons,
and all of their nephews and all of their cousins. So in the post-Abbasid period, each city might
be an independent kingdom. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> With
a Seljuk administration of the Holy Land,
returning pilgrims had complained bitterly at how badly Christians were
treated there. And when the Seljuks had invaded
Byzantium, both the Emperor and the
Patriarch had appealed to the Pope for help.
So the Pope was under pressure from both at home and abroad to do
something about the Turks.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> At this time, Europe had a surplus of
unemployed, landless knights terrorizing the countryside, so finding an errand
to send them on was an appealing idea. Finally,
in 1095, Pope Urban II made an appeal for Christian knights to
re-take the Holy land. He offered
partial remission of sins for those who would participate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> The
first group to arrive in the Middle East were not actually soldiers, but
peasants who wanted to get in on the action.
In 1096, a Seljuk prince was informed that some ill-equipped group pretending to be soldiers
had entered his territory, and announced that they were Franks, and they had come to kill Muslims and conquer
Jerusalem. The prince sent out his best
troops, who quickly dispatched them, killing or capturing them all. The next year, when the prince heard that more Franks were coming, he was not too
worried. But this second wave of
crusaders were the real thing----combat-hardened knights, from a land where
combat never stopped. The crusaders smashed
the Turkish troops defending Nicaea, seized the town and then split up, with some heading toward
Edessa, and the rest heading down the
Mediterranean coast to Antioch. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> The king of Antioch appealed to the king of
Damascus for help. The king of Damascus
said he would like to help, but he was afraid that his brother, the king of
Aleppo would swoop in and grab Damascus if he were to leave it. For Muslims,
the early crusades were a tragicomedy
of internecine rivalry that
prevented any coordinated defense against the Franks. After Antioch fell, the Franks killed
townspeople indiscriminately, and then headed for Ma'ara. They laid siege to Ma'ara, and tried to starve the town into submission.
But they starved themselves in the
process, since they had no supply line and had eaten every scrap of food in the
vicinity. Finally, the Franks assured
the townspeople that if they would just open the gates, no one would be
harmed. But as soon as the Franks gained
entry, they not only killed all the Ma'arans,
but boiled them and ate them.
Ansary says that although this sounds like the kind of
propaganda that defeated Muslims might concoct to slander the Crusaders, Frankish sources also confirm the
cannibalism, including eyewitnesses
Radulph of Caen, and Albert of Aix.
Albert wrote, "Not only did our troops not shrink from eating dead
Turks and Saracens--- they also ate dogs." <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> But
even at this point, the Muslims could not unite. As the Franks moved down the coast toward
Jerusalem, taking city after city, not only did the Muslims fail to mount any
unified challenge, but each group or faction tried to enlist the Franks into
their own little conflicts against other Muslims. By the time they neared Jerusalem, the city
had been taken by the Vizier of Egypt, who thanked the Franks for eliminating
some of their rivals, and invited them to come to Jerusalem as honored
guests. The Vizier promised that the
Franks would be under his protection.
They replied that they did not want his protection----they wanted
Jerusalem---and would come with lances raised. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> After
a 40 day siege, the crusaders promised that if the gates were opened, no one
would be harmed. But once inside, the blood bath began. They killed every Muslim, about 70,000. Jews had fled to the central synagogue. The Franks surrounded it and burned it to
the ground. There were Christians living in Jerusalem, but they were the
wrong kind of Christians , being either Byzantine, Coptic, or Nestorian. So as "Heretics," their property was confiscated and they were
expelled. Jerusalem was then proclaimed
to be a kingdom. In all, four "crusader
kingdoms" were proclaimed: Edessa,
Antioch, Tripoli, and Jerusalem. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> At
the time of the crusades, the whole Arabian peninsula was brimming with Turkish
and Arab warriors, and they were all
competent warriors. Any unified group of
them could have swatted the Franks like a bunch of flies. Arabia would have been a fortress. But there was no unity to be had, so instead
of a fortress, Arabia was a plum ripe for whoever cared to pick it. And someone in Europe probably knew
this, which may explain why Frankish
princes were so eager to come. The Pope
had given this adventure a cloak of respectability, but it was partly a land grab. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Today,
the crusades are represented as a
"clash of civilizations," but
no Muslims at the time saw it as such.
Because of the breakdown of communication caused by the Seljuk invasion,
only local Muslims even knew about it. And they saw it as just one more local
disaster. As for a "clash of
civilizations," it would not have occurred to any Muslim that Franks
actually had a civilization.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Jerusalem
would remain in Western hands for 88 years, till a Kurdish general known in the
West as Saladin would re-take it. Saladin was able to do this because in the
previous generation, his clan had consolidated control over all of Syria, and
he himself had taken control of Egypt and most of Palestine. Starting with Edessa, all of the Crusader
states fell, and in 1187, so did Jerusalem.
Upon taking Jerusalem, Saladin offered the same terms that Omar had
offered: foreign soldiers would be held
for ransom, but no one would be killed.
Christians would be free to leave or stay, as they chose. No place of worship would be molested, and
pilgrims could come and go as they pleased, and Jews were welcome to
return. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> But
in spite of these amicable terms, Western leaders were shocked that Jerusalem was
again in "heathen" hands, and organized another crusade. Three western kings led a crusade. The German king died on the way, the
Frenchman helped with one battle, and then went home, leaving Richard of
England to fight alone. Richard did not
take to the climate well, and was sick most
of the time. Saladin was quite
chivalrous throughout the whole affair.
When Richard was unhorsed in one battle,
Saladin sent him two fine replacement horses. And when Saladin heard that Richard had a
fever, he sent his personal physician and fresh fruit and ice water. Richard was less chivalrous, always breaking
truces and butchering civilians. They
fought a few battles, and Richard won
one battle, but was unable to change the situation on the ground, and went home.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Richard announced that he had won a sort of a
victory, because although he did not take Jerusalem, he forced Saladin to agree
to let Christians worship unmolested.
But, of course, Saladin had offered this from the beginning. Even though Christians controlled Palestine for
a century, it's amazing how little long term effect this had on the Muslim
world; the Christians left, and the
Muslims just got on with their lives.
But the reverse was not true. During the Crusader states era, Western traders had access to Palestinian
ports, and began hauling back to Europe all sorts of silks, satins, and exotic
spices. And this fact would have world-altering consequences later on. But as the plague of Christian knights
subsided, a far worse threat to Muslims erupted. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Born
in 1165, a Mongolian warrior named Temugin began uniting the various factions
and clans under a single leadership.
Known as Chengis Kahn, he built
the largest contiguous empire in history---- one stretching from Poland to Korea.
In 1211, He attacked and took over the
old Sung empire in China. He then began
attacking parts of Afganistan and Persia, killing over a million in Naishapur,
and another million in Herat, and destroying crops and livestock along the
way. His aim was to select a few cities
for total destruction to make an example of them. This allowed him to exact tribute from all
other cities without having to bother fighting them. Chengis Kahn died in 1227, and his grandson, Hulagu
Kahn, took the conquest south into the Muslim heartland. In 1258, he stormed Bagdad and gave an
ultimatum: total surrender-- or every
man, woman, and child would be killed.
The Khalif refused---and Hulagu kept his promise. But the Mongols were stopped in 1260, and it
was Muslim Mamluks that stopped them. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> At Ayn Jalut in Palestine, an army of Mongols on their way to Egypt was
totally routed by Egyptian Mamluk defenders.
This was the first major battle the Mongols had ever lost. The Mamluks used a new secret
weapon----guns. The Chinese may have invented gunpowder, but Arabs
and Turks gave us guns. Once in use,
the gun technology spread to all parts of the Muslim world, including Muslim
Iberia, and from there, on into Europe. As the Mongols advanced into Persia and
Arabia, they installed their own regime,
a Khanate, over Persia, Afghanistan, and part of Iraq. By the 1290s, these Mongol overlords began
converting to Islam, and their rule conformed more to Muslim law than
Mongol. The Mongols never went into Seljuk
Anatolia because the Sultan there had become a Mongol vassal. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> About
the time the last crusaders were leaving, a small group of Turks left Central Asia to
escape the advance of Mongols, and entered Anatolia. They offered to take their 400 horsemen to
the western frontier and help the Sultan fight the Byzantines, if he gave them land there. The Sultan was weak and needed all the help he
could get, so he agreed. These new Turks
had already converted to Islam, and they were not Seljuks. They were led by a chieftain who, in 1258,
had a son named Othman, later called
Ottoman. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Ottoman and his descendants chipped away at
what was left of the Byzantine Empire, completely surrounding Constantinople,
and then expanding into the Balkans. And
in 1453, they attacked Constantinople's 16 ft thick granite walls with the
largest cannons ever built. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> After taking all of the Byzantine Empire, they
took all of Anatolia, then Arabia, Egypt, and North Africa. Ironically, while it was a Turkish invasion
that originally disintegrated the Muslim
empire, it was another group of Turks, the Ottomans, who re-united most of it few
hundred years later.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> But
while Arabia, Egypt, and Anatolia suffered two hundred years of chaos and
invasions, other parts of the Muslim world flourished, especially India and
Iberia. Christian Iberia was first
invaded by North African Muslims in 711.
By 720 they controlled most of what is now Spain, and by 732 they were
within 20 miles of Paris. But there, at
Tours, they were badly beaten and pushed back into Spain by Charles
Martel. Christian knights eventually re-took
all Spain except the southern third, but this part remained in Muslin hands for
hundreds of years, and was called Al Andaluse.
The Capital city of Andaluse was
Cordoba, easily the largest and most
cosmopolitan city in Europe. It was also
the most tolerant city, with Muslim, Christian, and Jewish traders and scholars
working side by side. The Muslim Khalif was clearly in charge, but his
khalifate hired both Christian and
Jewish administrators and artisans.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> No
one knows when Muslims first began migrating into India, or started making
converts to Islam there. But about 1495, a Moghul prince north of Afghanistan, Prince
Babur, put together a small empire, and in 1505 moved into India. By that
time, there were already a fair number of Muslim dominated states there, and through
conquest, he united them all under his command. His grandson, Akbar the Great, understood
from the beginning that as a Muslim minority trying to dominate a non-Muslim
majority, Moghuls would have to be extremely tolerant to succeed. He invited religious scholars of all kinds
to discuss and debate matters of common interest, and he decided that all
religions contains some truths, but no religion contains every truth. He proclaimed that the best religion was
just "God religion," and suggested that people of all faiths could
emulate the lives of those "exemplary individuals" who can be found
in every religious tradition.
He
married a Hindu princess, repealed the Jezya tax on non-Muslims, and ordered
his soldiers to protect shrines and pilgrims all faiths. He was wildly popular with Muslims and
non-Muslims alike, and his reign marked the beginning of a golden age for
India. Akbar's descendents continued this tolerance and India continued
to flourish, especially in art, literature, and architecture. It was Akbar's grandson, Shah Jahan, who
designed and built the Taj Mahal. But Jahan's
son, Aurangzeb, was not happy with all this inter-faith cooperation,
and led a rebellion to overthrow his father. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Jahan spent the rest of his life in prison,
while his son quickly dismantled the culture of trust and cooperation that five
generations of his family had carefully constructed. He taxed Hindus and destroyed their
shrines, and plunged the sub-continent
into a hell of suspicion, hatred, and economic stagnation from which it never
quite recovered. And this left a once
proud and united India ripe for exploitation by any foreign power that wanted
to come there; and just about then, there was a power that wanted to come
there. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> About 1500 AD, ships from European countries began trading in Islamic ports. And over the next few centuries, it became
increasingly difficult for local Muslim industry to compete, because the West had
begun a scientific and technological revolution. Most of the knowledge that provided the starting
point for this revolution had come from the Islamic world. So why did this knowledge spark a revolution
in the West but not in the East? Ansary says that the outcome in the West was not due
to a single reason, but a combination of factors--a "perfect storm"
of factors.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Most
of the important breakthroughs that fueled these revolutions in the West
happened first in the East, over several centuries, and were then dumped onto
the West all at one time. This may have
amplified their effect. Also, in the
East, many discoveries happened just as
these societies were about to be overrun by invaders and plunged into a dark
age. But in the West, this information
came to light just as Europe was emerging from a dark age. Yet there were other factors. Because every European country was competing
to find a sea route to "The Indies,"
they were willing to finance voyages of exploration. Europe has a long coastline, and long history
of seafaring. By the year 1,000, the
Vikings had crossed the Atlantic, and by the 1,400s, Europeans had ships that could withstand an
Atlantic storm and sail into the wind. With
this technology, they discovered America.
The Muslims could easily have
developed this technology---but had no reason to. They already had access to the Indies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> As
soon as the Spanish gained a foothold in the new world, they enslaved the
natives and forced them to mine gold and silver. Hundreds of tons gold and silver would be shipped to Spain, and
be spent all over Europe, and every country in Europe would be overflowing with
excess gold---enough gold to finance any adventure the country cared to embark
on. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Another
development that altered Europe's history was the Protestant Reformation. Originally,
the Reformation was about whether each person had the right to read his own
Bible and draw his own conclusions. After
the Protestants won the Thirty Years War,
it was pretty well established that they did. But an unintended consequence of this outcome
was that if every man had the right to draw his own conclusions about matters of
faith, then why would he not have the same right to draw his own conclusions about
all other matters? This new kind of thinking
had two results: a new academic freedom,
and a new spirit of economic individualism.
And this new freedom hit Europe at a time when the accumulated knowledge
from the Islamic world, the knowledge that triggered the Renaissance, had
already become widely available due to
the invention of the printing press.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Another
factor that would set Europe apart from the rest of the world is that as a
consequence of the 100 Years War, England
and France became the world's first modern nation-states. And with the nation-state comes nationalism,
and with nationalism comes mercantilism. So when the first European traders arrived in
the ports of India, Persia, or the Ottoman Empire, they came with ships that could take them
anywhere in the world, and with enough gold to buy anything they found when
they got there. They also had superior
technology, including arms
technology. Guns and cannons were a
Muslim invention, but by the late 16th
century European arms were better and cheaper.
And every European nation arrived with a fierce nationalistic pride and a
mercantilist spirit, each trying to out-compete the others. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Whenever
any society with more gold or more technology, or more anything, penetrates the
economy of another, it can be
disruptive. Ansary says, "Forget the Battle of Lepanto; forget the Second Siege of Vienna. It was foreign traders, not soldiers who took
down the Ottoman Empire." All Ottoman
manufacturing was controlled by the guilds, who established minimum prices to
protect their workers. But maximum
prices were imposed by the state, to protect the public. In fact, in every aspect of Ottoman
life, there was a system of checks and balances. Every strand of the social fabric was
protected by some powerful sector of society, yet held in check by another. It worked like clockwork, and it was foreign trade
that threw a wrench into that clockwork.
When the Westerners came in, they did not attempt to sell products in
competition with local producers---the state would not let them. But they were happy to buy raw
materials---things like leather, wool, wood, oil, metal etc, and they paid in
gold. And the state smiled on this. How could bringing gold into the country not
be a good thing? But as the foreigners
bought up all the available leather, the
shoemakers became unemployed---and no one had any shoes, nor any wool coats,
nor metal tools, nor anything. Yet the local
craftsmen could not raise their bids on raw materials to bid against the
Westerners, as the prices of their end products were fixed by law. The state soon realized it had made a
horrible error, so it imposed an embargo on the export of strategic raw
materials. But once accustomed to the
higher prices offered by foreigners, producers continued to sell---illegally. So smuggling boomed. But for smuggling to work, local officials
had to be bribed, which pumped even more gold into the economy. With more money in circulation but less of
everything being produced, inflation resulted, which affected mainly people on fixed incomes, including government bureaucrats. They responded by demanding bribes for their
services. And since the empire was
always a complex bureaucracy, just
navigating the simplest transaction now took a dozen bribes and several
months. Gradually, the whole state machinery
slowed to a crawl. People rioted, so more police had to be hired, but raising taxes to pay them was not an
option, so they just printed more money, which caused more inflation. It was a death spiral, but in slow
motion. It took a couple hundred years
for the empire to completely crash, but
once started, there was really no way to stop it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Ansary goes on to explain how in each of the three
main Islamic societies--Ottoman, Persian, and Indian---it was European
businessmen, not armies, who dispossessed the local people, destroyed their
economy, and corrupted their government---even though in the beginning, no
Europeans attempted to take direct political control of any of these societies.
And yet, by 1850, Europeans in some way
controlled nearly every place that had
ever been part of the Dar al Islam.</span><o:p></o:p><br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Destiny Disrupted:</span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">A History of the World through
Islamic Eyes,</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>by Tamim Ansary.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A Book Review.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Part Three.</span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>We ended our last session by
noting that by the middle of the nineteenth century, Europe's traders had
penetrated the Islamic economy for a few hundred years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But eventually, the relationship shifted from
trade to total military control, even though no one had originally planned it
that way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the British East India
Company<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was chartered by Elizabeth I in
1600, its only hope<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was to make a
profit. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And soon its trading posts on
the coast of India were making a profit. But<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span>it was obvious that when
you fill warehouses with shiploads of valuable merchandise, you need to hire
security guards to protect this goods.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Technically, this police function may have been the responsibility
of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the local sovereign government, but
why should the Sultan spend his subjects' money protecting Englishmen?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the British East India Company hired
local guards, called Sepoys, supervised by British officers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As the company's zone of influence expanded, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>so did <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the
number of native troops employed to protect it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Within this zone, the company became the
default government,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>keeping the peace,
settling civil disputes, and even trying criminals and executing them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No one gave them the sovereignty to do this,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but England was a long way away.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Eventually, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the company's private army became the largest
standing army in the world, at 250,000 men.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And the area administered by the company was nearly half of India. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After 1757, British government troops were
sent in to help preserve order, so there were then <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">two</b> British armies in India. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But a century later, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in 1857, there was a mutiny against the
British, and British civilians were massacred.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>British soldiers <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>retaliated by
indiscriminately slaughtering natives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To
put an end to the chaos, the British government simply annexed India, making it
a crown colony.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The government was reluctant to do this, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>yet by 1876, the British had learned to like
being an empire, and began calling India, "The Jewel of the
Crown,"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and Victoria, "The
Empress of India".<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In 1798,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Napoleon had invaded Egypt to deny the
British control of the isthmus of Suez.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And then the British arrived and sunk the French navy and pushed the
French back out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>About 1805, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a military strongman named Mohamed Ali led a
coup and installed himself as king of Egypt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>By the 1830s, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ali had modernized
Egypt's army and built it into a formidable force, so that Egypt would never again
have the humiliation of being invaded by Europeans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in 1858, Ali's descendant, Said Pasha, happened
to sign an agreement allowing the French build the Suez canal. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of the canal would be financed by French
investors, but Egypt would have a 22% stake, and put up 22% of the cost.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The canal was a success, and opened in
1869.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But there were delays and cost
overruns, which left the Egyptian government bankrupt and deeply in debt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The British helped pay off these debts in
exchange for Egypt's share of the canal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Later, Britain and France made additional loans, but with the proviso
that they would oversee all Egyptian government spending until the debts were re-paid.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every Egyptian official had to answer to
his British or French counterpart, and the king had been reduced to a powerless
old pensioner.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Upon discovering that their government had
become nothing more than a puppet regime, the Egyptian Army staged a protest in
1879,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>which gave Britain an excuse to
send in troops. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By WWI--- several
uprisings and several regimes later---the British Army was still there, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and so were the British financial regulators. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then, at the start of WWI, Britain proclaimed
Egypt to be a British protectorate, and a part of the British Empire. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Once again, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>what started as economic interaction ended as
total military domination.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The 19th century was when European
powers began to shift from using economic influence over the Dar al Islam to
outright political and military control. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1884, the European powers met in Berlin and
carved up Africa among themselves. Their justification was that this would
bring civilization to Africa.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Never mind
that a lot of Africa already had a civilization.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Never mind that in the 14th century, European
royalty had sent their kids to the University of Timbuktu.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yes, the
Africans had a civilization, but it was all Islamic civilization, which wasn't quite
the right kind. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In 1830, the French invaded
Algeria,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>killed off as many Algerians as
they could, and then opened Algeria to French colonization.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But as soon as the French had installed
themselves in Algeria, an Arab liberation movement led by El Kader began.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Was this the same El Kader that the little
town in Clayton County, Iowa is named after?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Yup.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Same fellow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the same moment that Chief Black Hawk was
leading his people in a war against Europeans over his tribal lands in western
Illinois, El Kader was doing the same thing in Algeria.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They both lost.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in the Muslim world, Europeans would
lose in the 20th century all of the influence they gained in the 19th. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In WWI, an Arab revolt aided
by the British pushed the Turks out of Arabia----only to be replaced by the
British and French.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But this would
prove to be a very temporary arrangement. The British invasion of Turkey at the
end of WWI spawned a revolution that left Mustafa Kemal in charge in Turkey,
and in 1924 he ended the Ottoman Empire and founded the modern Turkish
Republic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By ending that empire, he ended
all claims by Turkey's creditors. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
1946, the French left Syria and Lebanon, in 1947, the British left Palestine, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in 1948, they left India, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and in 1952, they left Egypt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Dutch left Indonesia in 1950, and in 1962,
the French finally left Algeria.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And in
the 1960s, Europe withdrew from Africa as newly <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>independent nations<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>emerged there.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Today, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>no large Muslim country is controlled by a European
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>power. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Ansary <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>asks us to consider why the Europeans were
ever able to assert their control in the first place.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The obvious answer is that the industrial
revolution occurred first in the West.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">But why did it?</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ansary points out that the steam engine was
discovered at least two hundred years earlier in the East than in the
west.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was used for rotating a lamb
roasting on a spit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And that's all they
ever did with it. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is described in a
1551 book by Turkish engineer Taqi al-Din.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Chinese had also developed the pre-requisite technology for an
industrial revolution but never acted on it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Instead of inventing labor saving machines, one of the geniuses of the
Chinese, according to Ansary,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was
inventing massive make-work projects to soak up excess labor, such as the Great
Wall and the Great Canal.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In trying to discover why
certain inventions <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>led to a revolution
in the West but not in the East, I started by looking for some flaw in Islamic
culture that would explain why the West had this revolution and Islam did
not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And then it dawned on me that the
explanation is not a flaw in their culture, but a flaw in ours. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ansary explains that Muslim inventors didn't
think of using steam power to make devices that would mass-produce goods, and
neither did the Chinese, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>because they
lived in a society already overflowing with an abundance of consumer goods, often
unsold consumer goods,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>hand-crafted by
millions of artisans. The inventors themselves worked for an elite class whose
lot in life did not require them to produce anything at all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But this class <u>was</u> required to worry
about the welfare of those who did produce things, and serious unemployment was
not an option. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In short,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in most societies, authority is exactly
paired with responsibility.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anyone in a position
to command the massive resources required for mechanizing an industry is also usually
positioned to bear total responsibility for the consequences of that
mechanization. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now, when an operation
is mechanized,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>money is borrowed for
that investment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The income stream that
pays back that loan is the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">cost savings</b>,
that is, the money that won't <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>have to be
paid to certain workers because this <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>machinery
has replaced them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Suppose you are the
Amir of some village whose main source of income is producing hand-made
shoes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And suppose that someone offers
to build<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>machinery that would allow 100
workers to produce as many shoes as all 300 shoemakers now produce, and offers
a bank loan to finance it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those 300 shoemakers are all members of your
tribe, and if you cause 200 of them to be laid off, you could <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>be expected to support them for the rest of
their lives, which would cost you precisely as much as they are now paid. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So where is the cost savings to pay off the
loan?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ansary says, "It wasn't some dysfunction
in these societies that generated their indifference to potentially
world-changing technologies."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Quite
the opposite,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it was something working
too well that led them into what Ansary calls <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a "high level equilibrium trap."<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many of you are probably thinking, "For
the rest of their lives?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why would they
have to be supported for the rest of their lives?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wouldn't they eventually assimilate into some
other sector of the economy?"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well,
perhaps eventually.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But eventually can
be a long time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the South Side Iron
Works closed in Chicago,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>someone did a
study 20 years later, and found that of those laid off,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>almost none of them ever found a job that
paid over half of what they had earned at South Side,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and almost no one over fifty <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ever found a job at all. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>So, if the Islamic leadership
originally held back <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>from aggressively
pursuing industrialization for fear of social disruption,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>then how did the West avoid this
problem?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Quite obviously, they
didn't.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ansary only briefly mentions
Marx and Engels in England, but I think it merits a closer look, so I'm going
to digress a bit:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When Marx and Engels
wrote<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><u>The Condition of the Working
Class in England</u><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in 1844,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>they wrote of a sickly, desperate
population<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>whose short and brutal lives
came as close to a hell on Earth as any society has yet constructed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A government commission was formed there <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to study the problem of child labor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What they found was that children as young as
ten years old were being sold to factories and, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>for 16 hours a day, were locked inside a
factory and whipped if they could not work fast enough. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But none of this was supposed to happen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When Adam Smith wrote <u>The Wealth of
Nations</u> in 1776,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>he assured us that
if free enterprise and free trade were released from government regulation, the
magic of the market would create a utopia for all of us.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Workers wages would naturally<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>rise as the boom created by free
enterprise<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>forced factory owners to bid
against one another for labor, and consumer prices would fall as specialization
and mechanization lowered the cost of production and the free market forced
competition in prices. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But, for a variety of reasons, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that's not what happened.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sometimes mill owners formed gentlemen's
agreements and set the prices of both goods and labor, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>so that the workers were squeezed to near
starvation form both sides.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Couldn't
Smith have foreseen this?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He not only
foresaw this, he complained about it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>At one point he complains that although competition is the key to free
enterprise, whenever three or more<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>businessmen<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>get together, they
talk about how to fix prices.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><u>Wealth of</u> <u>Nations</u><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was not so much a description of how
capitalism actually worked, as it was a theory about how <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it was supposed <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But the British bought the whole package and enacted it without
restriction, and the result 70 years later was the England that Marx and Engels
saw.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Yet there was another thing
that Adam Smith objected to----the joint stock company <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(what we call corporations).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Smith thought they should be severely
restricted if not outlawed entirely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Why?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Because, he
claims, "They concentrate vast amounts of wealth into the hands of a few
individuals who did not earn it and <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">are
not responsible for it</b>."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Think
about it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What Smith is objecting to is
the divorce between power and responsibility.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Remember Ansary's observation
that in Islam, and in most societies,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>there
is no separation between authority and responsibility?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you wish to pinpoint the one reason that
the industrial revolution happened in England first, it is that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By the ingenious invention of the joint stock
company, the English created an organ that neatly separates power from
responsibility.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And they turned it loose
in a country with such an extreme cult of individualism <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that the new owners of this organ could use it
to work their fellow Englishmen to death and feel no guilt about it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Don't industrialization and
free enterprise eventually produce a world that is better for both workers and
owners?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yes, if properly regulated, they
certainly do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is no doubt that the British working
class was far better off in 1976 than they had been in 1776.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But they surely weren't in 1846, and
that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was 70 years into the project.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does every society that industrializes have
to endure <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a century of hardship for
their workers?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>England is the egregious case.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Germans did not start industrializing
till about 1840, and they had the benefit is seeing all that went wrong in
England.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They accepted
industrialization, but rejected free trade.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They negotiated a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>tariff zone
which allowed free movement of goods and capital within the zone but had a high
tariff wall to everything outside the zone, including movements of capital. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1840, they produced only insignificant amounts
of most industrial commodities,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but by
the eve of WWI, they produced more steel than England and also more coal,
chemicals, food, transport, and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>just
about everything else.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this,
incidentally, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was one of the main causes
of the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First World War. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And of course, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the Soviets had yet another plan for
industrializing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Now, to get back to
Ansary:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ansary explains that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the Islamic <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>leadership has spent 200 years watching the
West and its experiments with this problem,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>and for 200 years, there has been an ongoing debate as to just which
parts of the West's experiment they might wish to replicate, and which parts
they don't. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Ansary says, "No one
looking at machine-made consumer goods <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>said,
"Gee, we too should have a Reformation and develop a cult of individualism
and then undergo a long period of letting reason erode the authority of faith
while developing political institutions<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>that encourage free inquiry so that we can happen onto the ideas of
science while at the same time evolving an economic system<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>built on competition among private businesses
so that when our science spawns new technologies we can jump on them and thus,
in a few hundred years, quite independently of Europe, we can make the same
sorts of goods ourselves."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No,
people just said,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>"Nice goods.
Where can we get some?" <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Do Muslims from
non-industrialized<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>countries even grasp
that if their country were to adopt all the western technology required to
mass-produce these goods, such a change might carry a high price in social
disruption, cultural conflict, and economic chaos? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some probably do and some do not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And if those who do not grasp this were to
suddenly appreciate the price tag attached to such<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>modernization, would they still want the
goods?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some probably would, and some
would not.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When confronted with these
choices, most of the answers offered come from three sources: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">First:</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Secular
modernists,</b> inspired by people like Sayyid Ahmed Aligarh:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They accept both Western technology and
Western culture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Second:</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Islamic Modernists, </b>inspired
by Sayyid Jamaluddin-i-Afghan: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>accept modern Western science and technology
yet wish to keep <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>most of Islamic culture.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Third:</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Religious Conservatives,</b> inspired
by Mohamed Ibn abd al Wahhab:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>reject both Western technology and Western
culture. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>All three of these
philosophies<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>were fully developed in the
18th or 19th centuries, and drew on ideas<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>hundreds of years older. <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
each has millions of adherents in every major Muslim country. In the last few
hundred years there have been three revolutions in the West that have spilled
over into the world of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Islam:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Industrial Revolution, as muscle power
has been replaced by steam power, the Democratic Revolution,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as kings have been replaced by parliaments,
and the Nationalist revolution, as empires have been replaced by independent nation-states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And every major Muslim society<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>has three main power blocks: The
Nationalists,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>who want a strong,
independent nation-state, the Constitutionalists, who want a democratic state,
and the Modernists, who want an industrially developed state.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Standing against this onslaught of Western
ideas are the religious scholars (the Ulama), who are adamant that whichever
way their society heads, it remains Islamic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>don't really care which way
the bus is headed as long as <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>they get to
drive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But past experience has shown
that when they get to drive, the bus often doesn't go anywhere at all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>None of these political blocks is a
majority, but a coalition of any two of them can usually <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>unseat <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>whoever
is in power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And governments change
hands as these alliances shift,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>so each
of these blocks has had its day in the sun.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>So let's take a closer look at
each of these three main movements:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">First, The</b>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Religious Conservatives</b>,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(especially the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Wahhabis):<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
In
1744,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in a remote part of the central
desert of Arabia, at the oasis town of Diriyah,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>a radical Muslim preacher named Mohamed Ibn abd al Wahhab <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>begged the protection of the local Amir,
Mohamed bin Saud.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Wahhab urgently needed
protection, because his highly intolerant preaching had made him pretty
unpopular.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He and Saud were both Sunni
Muslims, and both were Salafis, that is, they believed that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the correct form of Islam was the kind
practiced just after the death of the Prophet, and all innovations since then
were in error.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Wahhab also<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>belonged to the ultra conservative Hanbali
school of Sharia law, and Wahhab's own interpretation of that law had become
more radical and intolerant than any form of Islam ever practiced.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He believed that all Muslims had fallen into
heresy and idolatry and it was his calling to set them right. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Muslim idolaters?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sounds pretty unlikely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Wahhab claimed that any<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>respect or veneration shown to anything but
God was idolatry.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Visiting a sacred
shrine?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Idolatry.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Putting flowers on a grave?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Idolatry. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the Heretics?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All Shiites, Sufis, and basically, anyone who
disagreed with him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And Wahhab taught
that all Muslims had a duty to wage Jihad against all the enemies of Islam, and
that included foreign enemies, idolaters, and heretics---and the penalty for
heresy was death.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wahhab was
immediately seen as a dangerous man, and that's why he needed protection.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But bin Saud liked Wahhab, and converted to
his philosophy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They signed a pact:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saud agreed to protect the Wahhab family and
accept them as<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the sole spokesmen of
Islam, and Wahhab pledged all of his followers to serve the Saud family as the
sole political authority.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The pact was
sealed by the marriage of bin Saud's son and al Wahhab's daughter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>After 1744, bin Saud embarked
on a military campaign to subdue all of the central desert.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was a long, bloody war, and thousands of
Shiites were killed, but the area was so remote that no one in the outside
world even knew about it, nor would they have cared.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in 1803, the Saudis seized Mecca and
Medina, and the Ottoman Sultan cared a great deal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Aided by his vassal, the king of Egypt, he <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>re-took Mecca and also Diriyah, and all the
Wahhabi religious leaders were sent to Constantinople<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and executed. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And that was the end of the First Saudi
State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The rest of the Saudi/ Wahhabi
clan just melted back into the desert and were forgotten.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But by the beginning of WWI,
they had again become a power to be reckoned with, and in 1924, they seized Mecca
and Medina, and in 1932, they gained recognition as the state of Saudi
Arabia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1945, when Roosevelt was on
his way back from Yalta, he met with <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Aziz Ibn Saud.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The two leaders made a handshake deal that
the Saudis would keep the oil flowing and the U.S. would defend the Saud
family.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was no formal treaty, but
neither side has ever broken this deal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Not all who live in Saudi Arabia are Wahhabis---only 23%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And there are 45% in the United Arab
Emirates. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But prior to 1980, there were
no Wahhabis outside the Arabian peninsula.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But now, backed by Saudi oil dollars, Wahhabi groups have gained
influence in every Islamic country, especially Afghanistan, Egypt, and Syria.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Through <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>American military and financial backing, we
have helped the Saudis to unleash upon the Muslim world the most intolerant and
violent form of Islam that has ever existed. . <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Next:</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Secular modernists:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b>The
most radical and successful of the modernist reformers was Mustafa Kemal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the end of WWI,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Turkey was invaded by Britain, France, Italy
and Greece.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a young Army officer,
Kemal organized a resistance that pushed the invaders out and forced them to
accept a peace that left Turkey intact. <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And he convened an assembly that proclaimed
Turkey a republic---a republic which endures to this day---and Kemal was
elected president. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He became known as
Ataturk---the father of Turkey.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His extreme popularity allowed him to put into
law his own vision of a modern Turkey, which was a totally secular country with
no public role for the clerics or even for Islam.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To break the power of the Ulama, the clerics,
he closed the religious <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>schools,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and required a dress code that banned head
scarves for women<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and the fez, turbines,
and beards for men.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He gave women the
right to vote and hold office, he outlawed polygamy, and he reformed the
divorce laws.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And he made Turkish the
official language and required it to be written in the Latin alphabet,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and even required that public reading of the
Qur'an be in Turkish only.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a final
coup, he introduced ballroom dancing as the official entertainment at state
functions. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In spite of the clerics, he
was able to do all this because he had the strong support of all<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>factions except the clerics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Besides the support of the modernists, he had
the support of the nationalists because he had thrown the foreigners out of
Turkey and the constitutionalists because they wanted his parliamentary
democracy to succeed. And Ataturk was not the only modernizer.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Between 1919 and 1929, King
Amanulla in Afghanistan was trying to do the same thing as Ataturk, and would
have succeeded, but he was overthrown by religious fanatics, with the help of
the British. The British did this because Afghanistan <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>shared a border with British India, and they
wanted someone they could control.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>British India is gone, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but the
fanatics, now called Taliban, are still there.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Finally,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>the Islamic Modernists</b>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Present day Iran would be a good example of
Islamic Modernism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Ayatollahs<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>want a combination of Islamic society and
Western technology.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This would seem like
a compromise between Modernism and Wahhabism,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>but it is probably <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the worst of
all possible worlds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Followed to its
logical conclusion, it leads to a <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">nuclear
armed medieval theocracy</b> run by a dictatorial Ayatollah and the "Party
of God." <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In 1953, Iran had a
democratically elected government headed by Mohammad Mossadegh. But a military
coup orchestrated by the CIA and Britain's MI6 removed all power from this
government and gave it back to the Shah, Reza Pahlavi.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Britain's reasons for doing this was that
Mossadegh had threatened to nationalize Iran's oil, and the Americans had cold
war motivations because <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Iran shared<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a border with the Soviet Union.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The present Iran regime dates to a cleric-backed
revolution in 1979, which got rid of the Shah.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Shah was a modernizer but was very brutal, so the movement to get
rid of the him had broad popular support.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But if the U.S. and Britain had not toppled the Mossadegh government in
1953,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>there would have been no Shah to
get rid of.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What did the U.S. and
Britain gain from this?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nothing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Shah nationalized the oil anyway, and the Soviet Union no longer exists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The entire modern history of
Western interference in the Dar al Islam is one of Western governments
interfering in pursuit of some short term goal, but creating problems that persist
long after these goals have become irrelevant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Muslim Brotherhood came into existence in Egypt in 1928, in reaction
to British influence there. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>British
Egypt has not existed since 1952, yet this organization is still with us and has
been an influential <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>player in every
Middle Eastern war, including <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the war in
Syria. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We cut the deal with the
Saudi/Wahhabi regime because we wanted the oil.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But one of these days, the world will have to quit using oil
anyway,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but the Wahhabis will still be
there. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>This is not to say that if no
Western power had ever intervened in the Dar al Islam,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>everyone would be at peace.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The three major power blocks plus the Ulama
would still be there in continual contention.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But to the degree that we actually had any influence---we have used it
pretty irresponsibly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<!--EndFragment--><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-59151668242820354532016-07-31T16:03:00.001-05:002016-07-31T16:24:40.210-05:00<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Precision Revolution.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I just returned home from a two week
trip through New England, a part of the U.S. that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I had never visited before.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>trip was a tour sponsored by Road Scholar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The focus of this tour was mainly the
development of the first railroads in New England, and the effect of this on
the economic development of the region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The "take away"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>message
was that after the completion of the Erie Canal in 1813,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>New York Harbor had a direct connection to
American interior markets, putting all other East Coast ports at a
disadvantage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Baltimore responded by
building the Baltimore and Ohio Railroad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Investors in Boston,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>still the
busiest East Coast port, responded with a flurry of efforts aimed at
building<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a rail link from Boston to the St.
Lawrence River.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>efforts eventually<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>connected rural New England to the rest of
the world. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But the most interesting part of the
tour and lecture series was a visit to the American Precision Museum in
Windsor, Vermont.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This National
Historic Landmark is built around the old Robbins and Lawrence Armory,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>an 1846<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>gun factory, originally water powered, built along the upper Connecticut
Valley.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At first glance, it looks like
a typical musket factory,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with the
interior walls lined with display cases filled with old guns bearing labels
such as:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>"The first Sharps
Rifle",<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>or "The first Enfield
Rifle."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Wait a minute.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wasn't the Enfield a British weapon?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was, but the tooling to produce it was
made in Vermont, as were the first few hundred rifles.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then these rifles were shipped to England,
along with the tooling, where they were made thereafter.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, that was the business plan:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To work with the customer to design a rifle;
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>design and build the tooling to make the
product;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>make a few hundred to assure
that the tooling worked;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and then turn
the whole operation over to the customer or some third party for actual
production,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>so that they could
concentrate of the more highly skilled and lucrative activity of just designing
and building tooling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>After a few minutes in this place,
the historical significance of this enterprise began to sink in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is the place where mass production
began.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You see, Robbins and Lawrence
were making rifles with interchangeable parts, and were one of the first, if
not the first, to do so successfully.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Eli
Whitney had had the idea to do this in the War of 1812,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but due to the exigencies of war he was not
allowed time to first build the tooling, and then build the muskets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nor could he explain to the customer just
what he was trying to do, and why it took time to do it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And even if his persecutors in Congress had
understood the issue, they could not have given him the time anyway, since we
were at war and time was not to be had.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But in 1849, The Army gave Robbins and Lawrence a contract for 10,000
rifles, and three years to fulfill it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the first year they just designed the tooling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the second year, they built the
tooling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And in the third year, they
made all 10,000 rifles, with interchangeable parts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The era of mass production had arrived.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But for this revolution in
production to occur, there first needed to be a revolution in precision.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Hence the name,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>American Precision Museum. )<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As long as things were made one at a time,
there was very little attention paid to precision, except that each part had to
be the right size to fit to its mating<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>part.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But exactly what size that
was arbitrary.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I used to own a small
machine shop, and I still have a few old lathes, mills, and drill presses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If I am making some one-of-a-kind object for
my own use,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and someone asks me,
"What size is that shaft?"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
might reply, "Whatever size will fit that bushing."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So they ask, "So what size is the
bushing?" and I reply, "Whatever will fit that shaft."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It the 18th century, some Englishman
built a watch so perfect that it could be used for navigation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Surely, this had to be a precision
device.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet it was precision only in
the sense that each part had to fit its mating part.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As long as it did that, its actual size was
unimportant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But to have the advantage
of mass production, where each worker is set up to make only one part,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and will make thousands of them before he has
to stop to change set-ups to make a different part, then you need parts that
conform precisely to some pre-determined standard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And you need measuring instruments,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(gauges) to check them all to make sure that
they do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And these gauges have to have
an even higher standard of precision.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These challenges required a whole new way of thinking, and new
techniques and methods, before the benefits of mass production could be realized.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And these methods were first worked out, not
in England, but in New England,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in the
upper Connecticut Valley, in the 1840s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If you ever have a chance to visit that part of the U.S. ,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>take the time to visit this museum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They still have some of the old machinery, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as well as docents who can tell you about it. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Probably the prize of their collection in a
machine which Robbins and Lawrence built in 1853 for cutting rifling groves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the pull of a single lever, you can cut
a rifling,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>index the barrel 1/5th of a
turn to cut the next one, and after all 5 cuts, advance the tool bit for the
next pass.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And a single adjustment will
give you any desired rifling pitch in twists per foot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> They also have a machine, (shown below) which is an early form of profile mill which allows a milling cutter to duplicate a pattern.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_dzcoLCsfFw/V55oApMwGnI/AAAAAAAAAG8/3Kj7_ptZwHAv_8QI0VJkpiK7pwdMBkWmgCLcB/s1600/IMG_1556.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_dzcoLCsfFw/V55oApMwGnI/AAAAAAAAAG8/3Kj7_ptZwHAv_8QI0VJkpiK7pwdMBkWmgCLcB/s320/IMG_1556.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I once visited the Museum of Science
and Industry in London,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and I saw James
Watt's workshop,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and some of his steam
engines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And in a sense, this is where
the industrial revolution started.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
before the modern world could be built, we also needed mass production, and
this needed interchangeable parts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And for
this to happen, the industrial revolution had to advance to the second stage---the
precision revolution,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>which happened in a large room in a mill on the Connecticut<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>river.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And I have been there.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-26694540732938730582016-02-27T19:38:00.000-06:002016-02-27T19:38:26.184-06:00Lawrence in Arabia, a book review<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This
book by Scott Anderson, (copy write 2013 by Random House) is one of the most </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">fascinating biographies you could ever hope to
read.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">It is a commonplace today that
most of the messy state of affairs in the Middle East today owes to the absurd
political arrangements </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">drawn up by the
European powers at the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of WWI.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Those of us who've seen David lean's classic
movie, "Lawrence of Arabia"</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">
</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">were given some idea what these disastrous decisions were.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But we were left in limbo as to why France
and England made the decisions they did, and what alternatives might have been
available.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anderson's meticulously researched book
goes into a little more detail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
biography also corrects some misapprehensions in other parts of the saga of
T.E. Lawrence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the movie, we are
given the impression that Lawrence arrives in Egypt as a complete newcomer to
the desert.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Actually, by the outbreak
of war, Lawrence had already spent a couple years in the Arabian desert as an
archaeologist.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And in the last few
months before the war, he was working for British intelligence,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>using his archaeology wanderings as a cover
while making military maps of the region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>By the time the war started, he probably knew the desert and its people
and their languages better than any Englishman.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In fact,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>at the war's outset, he
was ordered by Lord Kitchener himself not to enlist in the Army----because they
would need him as a civilian analyst in the Egypt office of British
Intelligence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Later, for reasons of
protocol, it was decided that he should be an officer, so he was given a
uniform and told that commission papers would be drawn up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
T. E. Lawrence was not the only young foreigner<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>wandering around the Syrian and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Arabian desserts before the war.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was Wm. Yale, an American oil man
working for Standard Oil.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And there was
Curt Prufer, a German language expert attached to the German embassy in Cairo,
who would later become a spy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And there
was Aaron Aaronsohn,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>an agriculture
expert at a Zionist settlement in Palestine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>All of these outsiders had met before the war, and their paths would
cross and re-cross several times<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>over
the next several years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anderson's book
not only gives a detailed biography for Lawrence's own career throughout the
war,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but follows the trajectory of each one
of these four young men for several years, and in so doing, allows us to see the
war from multiple perspectives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
allows us to see what happened and why, and see it in ways that would not have
been obvious to any one of the players at the time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>T.E.
Lawrence was a unique figure in history;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>there is really no one quite like him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And Anderson begins his bio with a couple chapters on Lawrence's
childhood to give us an idea as to how became what he was.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Beside the insights we gain about Lawrence
himself, Anderson shows us the British WWI General Staff in all its
breathtaking incompetence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(The events
at Gallipoli beggar the imagination.) The movie let us know that besides
fighting the Turks and quelling the squabbles of rival Arab tribes, Lawrence
had to continually battle his own military</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">high command and even the British Diplomatic
Corp----a task he did not enjoy at all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But Anderson<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>shows that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>although he did not at all enjoy this
activity---he was pretty good at it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-22299802845724790132016-02-02T12:38:00.000-06:002016-02-02T12:38:44.209-06:00Confessions of an Iowa Caucus Participant<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Well, the caucuses are over and the mainstream media are calling it a tie. Both sides are claiming victory, but Bernie's claim has more credibility. When Bernie came to Iowa, Hillary was 50 points ahead, had more money than God, and had the public backing of every establishment Democrat. To come from behind and force a tie is quite a victory. And when you consider that Hillary's stock has gone nowhere but down since October, while Bernie's has only gone up, it's clear that if the caucuses had come a few week later he would have won decisively. The mood is quite jubilant among Bernie supporters. Keep in mind that although many of Hillary's supporters, (mostly middle-aged women) are supporting her just because she is female, I don't think any Democrats oppose her for that reason.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> </span><span style="background-color: #f6f7f8;"><span style="color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">Every Bernie Sanders Democrat I know, (myself included) was an Elizabeth Warren supporter before becoming a Sanders supporter. We only signed onto Bernie's campaign when we failed to persuade Elizabeth to run. Gender has nothing to do with it. And, unlike our Republican friends, we do not actually dislike Hillary. Actually, she is a cool headed, intelligent woman, who shows considerable grace under fire. ( I remember during the Bill Clinton sex scandal she was on TV, and asked how she felt about it. She said, "Bill was always a hard dog to keep on the porch. I knew that when I married him." ) Hey, that is a cool lady. But many of us feel that Clinton is so totally entangled with the present corrupt system that she couldn't really change the things that urgently need to be changed. The fact that she gets almost all her funding from billionaires illustrates this point. But Bernie comes to the game free of all these strings. He refuses pac money, and is financed by small contributions from over 2 million individual voters. Nobody owns Bernie. Young people are particularly attracted to Bernie, because they agree with him on two points: 1. Wall street is completely out of control, and this is wrecking our economy. 2. Congress is completely dysfunctional, because of the influence of the tons of money flooding into the campaign finance system, and this is wrecking our democracy. If you are over 50, you may assume that as bad as it is, the final collapse probably won't happen in your lifetime. If you're under 40, you may not be so optimistic. But here is the real news from the Iowa Democratic Caucuses last night: To participate, you have to be a registered Democrat. If you're not, you have to fill out a form that registers you as such. Guess what? We ran out of forms. And so did all of the other caucus sites. The state party, in its wildest optimism, failed to anticipate the surge of interest from young people entering the process. Bernie said he wants a revolution and he's getting one. My wife and I had a strange experience at the caucuses last night. There were two Democratic precincts caucusing in the same room last night. Our group moved out into the hallway to get away from the noise and confusion of the other group. The other group, a more populous region, had 200 members, to award 7 delegates. We had only 5 people show up to elect one delegate. (Last time we had 24). One of our problems is that our area has no young people. They have all fledged and flown, just like our daughter. We had no young people----just me and my </span></span><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">wife</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> and two middle aged women who backed Hillary and a middle aged man who also did. So our one delegate went to Hillary. Interestingly, when it came to elect the actual delegate, one of the women works for the county election office and can't become a party official. And the other two Hillary supporters both work Saturday. The county convention is on Saturday. So my wife and I had to accept the job of going to the convention as Hillary supporters. One of us will be the delegate and one will be the alternate We will be honor bound to support Hillary for the first two ballots. This is weird, but not unusual. I don't think this would work in New Jersey, but it works in Iowa. ("I could not love Bernie half so much, loved I not honor more.") </span></span></span></span></div>
The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-15019556481044199102016-01-25T11:56:00.000-06:002016-01-25T11:56:21.067-06:00An Evening With Bernie Sanders<span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> Well, hearing Bernie is not like hearing a typical political speech. He talks for over an hour. And he tells you in advance that he's going to bore you with a lot of numbers. <b>But nobody gets bored.</b> What numbers?</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> First, on the exponential growth of inequality: The top one tenth of one percent now has more wealth than the bottom 90%. That's right. Not the top 1% but the top one tenth of one percent. The wealthiest one family, the Waltons, have more wealth than the bottom 40%. And since the recession ended, </span><span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">90% of all income growth</span><span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> has accrued to the top 1%. (By the way, these are credible numbers. I was reading these same numbers in several publications before Bernie even started to run for this office. And I think Bernie was reading them too----that's probably what made him decide to run.) </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> Second: On political corruption: Both parties now receive more campaign funding from Wall Street firms than from all other sources combined. So all new legislation stacks the deck to warp the economy so as to funnel even more money to the top. The economy is rigged, and that's how it got that way.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> Third: Education funding: Young people have been crushed under a load of student debt for a whole generation now. Some people who are now paying on their kids student loans still haven't paid off their own, and owe more now than they did when they left college, even though they have already paid back way more than they ever borrowed. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> Forth: Unemployment: Youth unemployment is over 25% for Whites and much higher for Latinos and Blacks. And if a young college graduate with a $60,000 student loan to pay off does get a job, it will probably pay the minimum wage.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> Fifth: Minimum wage: The minimum wage is a starvation wage. (If the mininum wage had been indexed for inflation since the '60s, it would be over $15.00 per hour.)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> Sixth: Criminal justice: We lock up a higher percentage of our young people than any country on earth, which costs us 80 billion bucks per year. We could start fixing this by de-criminalizing cannabis.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> Seventh: Our greatest national security threat is climate change. We have to convert to carbon free energy sources as soon as we can. (Several of our top generals are saying the same thing.)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> Eighth: Every other industrialized country on earth has universal health coverage, and they pay about half what we pay.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f6f7f8;"><span style="color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> Ninth: Most other countries have equal pay for women, paid maternity leave, and subsidized child care.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"> After having told you this stuff, Bernie tells you what we have to do to fix these things, what it will cost, and who will have to pay for it. This is just a brief summary. To hear his whole presentation takes 78 minutes. If you could hear the rest of the story, it gets even scarier.</span>The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-81979360299792824532015-09-12T13:54:00.001-05:002015-09-12T13:54:39.016-05:00Do Dreams Have a Meaning?People have wondered since ancient times whether dreams have a meaning. I never thought about it much because <span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px;">I rarely have dreams that I remember. But last night's crisp Fall air was perfect for sleeping, and also for dreaming. I dreamed that I was wandering about a vast public plaza, and under my coat I was carrying a large leather pouch or purse, which seemed to contain a few tiny, cheap cameras, some old cassette tapes, and small fragments of scrap lead. I wanted to get rid of the bag, and I thought of throwing it in a trash can or in the river, but it dawn</span><span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px;">ed on me that it could possibly be traced back to me, and for some reason, this did not seem like a good idea. I was tired, and there was an alcove adjoining the plaza where they re-upolstered old furniture. It was nearly deserted, so I went in and sat down in an old overstuffed chair that was awaiting reupholstering. Other weary travelers, mostly hobos and derelicts I guess, were doing the same thing. I re-examined the leather pouch, and it now contained two small marionettes---the small gaudy, paper mache kind they make in Mexico to sell to tourists. Upon discovering the marionettes, I said, "Hmmm. Interesting." So that's as much of the dream as I remember. So, my friends---what do it mean?</span>The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-60726527121188619912015-07-04T16:34:00.002-05:002015-07-04T16:40:58.941-05:00Too Little Government Debt?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">There
was a fascinating little article by <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10130211234592774869404581082060657349394">Justin Lahart</a></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">in the July 2 issue of </span><u style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Wall Street Journal</u><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">, entitled
"Federal Reserve Faces Newfangled Problem:</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Too Little Debt."</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Let me quote you a couple lines:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>"With
the election year approaching,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>politicians will be ramping up the rhetoric about America's looming debt
problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Federal
Reserve, on the other hand, may soon have<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>a different<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>worry:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that there is too little
government debt to go around for long-term rates to rise meaningfully." <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Right
now,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>real interest rates, after
inflation, are near zero, and have been so for a long time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While this helps crank up the economy
and helps buoy up stock prices, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it
can be dangerous if it persists too long, in that it can trigger an asset
bubble of some kind.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
housing bubble was mainly caused by keeping interest rates too low for too
long.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And we may now be in a stock
price bubble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the
Fed would really like to get off the zero interest rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the newspapers<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>speculate about when the Fed will begin
to raise interest rates,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>rate in question is the Prime
Rate---the rate at which the Federal Reserve loans money to banks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But, as a practical matter, this
rate can never get too far from the rate at which the government borrows
money---- the rate commanded by treasury bills.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So for the prime rate to go up very much, the rate paid on
Treasury bills would have to rise also, and that's the problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These rates are not set by executive
fiat---they are set by public auction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When T-bills are auctioned off, the discount from face
value at which they trade determines the actual interest rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And right now, buyers are bidding
for them so aggressively that they have bid the interest rate to zero. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Debt
is a commodity-- especially safe, secure sovereign debt like U.S. T-Bills. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From time to time,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>investors need a safe place to park
their money---and T-Bills provide such a place.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the supply of U.S. T-Bills has been shrinking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Under the Obama administration,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the economy has improved, so tax
collections are rising.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the
same time, the administration<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>has
cut back on spending, so the amount of new debt being issued is shrinking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And most of the new debt is issued
simply to redeem existing notes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So the net new supply of U.S. sovereign debt is only about 50 billion
dollars per month,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>which falls way
short of demand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
to make matters worse,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>western
European central banks have finally decided to do a little quantitive easing,
so they are printing money and buying their own sovereign debt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This means that European investors who
would normally be buying their own government debt are now buying ours, which
makes the bidding even more aggressive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The only solution would be to persuade the Obama
administration to do more borrowing and spending, but Democrats have become
such deficit hawks that this is not likely to happen. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-8850601410515629622015-05-30T13:44:00.004-05:002015-05-30T17:19:33.185-05:00Frontline Ukraine<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I
am about halfway through Richard Sakwa's book,</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><u style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">FRONTLINE UKRAINE, Crisis in the</u><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><u style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Borderlands.</u><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This is an excellent
book,</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">and the first one I've found
printed in English that seems to give an evenhanded</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">account of the problem.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I will not attempt to post a review of this book---I
just recommend that you read it</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">
</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">yourself.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The problem
he describes is complex enough that the 255 pages he writes is in itself a
brief summary.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Parts are
densely written but no more so than necessary to describe the complex
historical, economic, and geopolitical forces in play here.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I can't summarize it, but I'll</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">give you a metaphor.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">[This is my metaphor---not the
author's]</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Imagine
a large hockey arena,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with two
goals;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>one at the east, and one at
the west.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are seven or eight
teams on the ice,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>representing two
different leagues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>None of
the teams have decided for sure which league they want to belong to---some would
like to belong to both, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but that
isn't allowed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is internal
dissention within the teams over this issue, with violent quarrels breaking
out, and some members switching allegiance to other teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All the players on the ice<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>have known each other for a very long
time, and carry old grudges that go back as far as anyone can remember. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Meanwhile, a dozen pucks are in play,
bloody fights on the ice break out from time to time, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and there are no referees.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everyone accuses <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>everyone else of bad faith----usually for good reason.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Occasionally, someone<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>makes a good faith effort to stop the
madness, but the old wounds and old grudges are too old and too deep.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
drunken fans are not sure who they are cheering for--or why. They quarrel among themselves noisily,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>and eventually,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>some of
them will probably set fire to the arena.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-38013513533154102292015-05-03T15:38:00.001-05:002015-05-03T15:38:27.501-05:00Taking Sides in the Class War<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> This post, and its accompanying fact sheet, are part of a presentation on economic inequality presented at the Cedar Valley Unitarian Universalists on April 12, 2015.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">Please take a look at the fact sheet before reading the rest of the post.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">FACT SHEET----ECONOMIC INEQUALITY IN
AMERICA.<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Can inequality be quantified, or
defined objectively?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Gini Index does this. In 1912, an
Italian economist named Corrado Gini devised an index which integrates the
income data from an entire country into a single number, the Gini Index.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If all of the income in a country went
to a single individual, the country would have an index equal to 1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If all income were divided perfectly
evenly, the country would have an index equal to 0.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So all Gini indices fall between 0 and 1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(The higher the number, the more
inequality.) Since 1912, economists worldwide have used the Gini Index.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What is the U.S. Gini Index, and how
does this compare to other countries?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In 1985, the U.S. Gini Index was .419.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Across Europe at that time, the index ranged from .200
to .300.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Historically, at least
since WWII,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>income distribution in
Europe has been radically more equal than in the U.S.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">3. Where do
Gini numbers come from?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
U.S. Census Bureau computes and publishes Gini Index numbers for the U.S. as a
whole, and for each Congressional District.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">4. How has
the U.S. Gini Index changed through time?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1968, the U.S. index was .386, the lowest ever
recorded. By 1975, it was .397.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By 1985, it was .419.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Today, it's .476.<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">To look at it
another way, in 2012, the top 1% got 23% of all income.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is the same percentage as in
1928---just before the start of the Great Depression.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In case you were wondering why Wall Street investors
would care about inequality--now you know.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">All Gini Index
numbers quoted here are from an article in the March 16 issue of <u>The New
Yorker</u> by Jill Lepore, entitled "Richer and Poorer."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this article she reviews three
recent books, including Robert Putnam's <u>Our Kids:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The American Dream in Crisis</u>.<u><o:p></o:p></u></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><b>TAKING SIDES IN THE CLASS WAR</b>........by Albert Browne<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Last
summer, the Unitarian Universalist General Assembly ( the UU GA) chose"
Escalating Inequality" as its National Study and Action Issue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet the UU GA is not the
only voice speaking out on this subject. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the last few years, The International Monetary Fund,
(the IMF) has been saying that the main thing holding back the economic
recovery, worldwide,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is economic
inequality in the US.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Pope also
talks about inequality, and President Obama had <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>made remediation of inequality the centerpiece of his second
term, until world events pushed it onto a back burner. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Keep in mind that the IMF is a syndicate
of international banking interests.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>No one ever accused them of being a friend of working people
anywhere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet even they are
worried about inequality. They think if this <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>problem<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>remains
unchecked, it could bring down the whole Western economic system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Several editorials have been printed in
the <u>Wall Street Journal</u><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>sharing <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that concern.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What are the odds that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the Pope, the IMF, and the UU GA would all
agree on something? Yet they are all concerned about inequality. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>How
did we ever get to this level of inequality?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, it is the predictable result of a 40 year class
war.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Do we really have
a class war?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Warren Buffet
says, "Yes, there is a class war---and unfortunately, my side is
winning." <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>before I try to persuade you of a moral
obligation to fight<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>growing inequality
by doing something, I would like to examine the question of whether there is
any action you could take that would make a difference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If not, then you probably have no obligation
to do anything at all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We have all
spent most of our adult lives hearing that any attempt improve the lives of
those who are less successful is bound to fail, or would just make things
worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or we've<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>heard that taxing billionaires to fund
benefits for the general public is counter-productive,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>because billionaires are the "job
creators," or because the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>confiscation of wealth through taxation might undermine the
incentive for investors to take risks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>We are told that even though our human instincts might spur us to help
others, we should resist this urge because it just makes things worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are told that the only thing society
can really <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>do that helps is to repeal
taxation and regulation, and get government out of the way,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>so the "magic of the
market"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>can do its work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, since the meltdown of 2008, our
most recent experience with "the magic of the market," you might
wonder how anyone could still believe this stuff, but a lot of people do, and they
are not all uneducated or ignorant people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are so immersed in this kind of "free-market
cheerleading" that most people accept it without ever examining why. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether you call it "trickle
down" economics, or "supply side" economics, it's all the same
idea, and it's been around for a long time. The idea is actually based on the
theories of two Eighteenth Century economists;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Adam Smith, who wrote the Wealth of Nations,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jean-Baptist Say,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>who gave us "Say's Law." <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People like to quote<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Adam Smith, though most have not actually read Smith, and would not much
like what they saw if they ever did. But it's Say's Law that all reactionary
economic schemes really depend on. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This idea gets resurrected about once every generation, and the reason
it always has believers is that some of its defenders always have impressive
credentials. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Milton
Friedman, after all, was a Nobel laureate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Winning the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nobel Prize in Economics in 1976 made him the High-Priest of
Money, and his <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>acolytes soon took
over the economics departments of many of our best colleges<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So if you have been influenced by
these ideas, and all of us have, then I should take the few minutes required to
demonstrate that Say's Law is all complete and utter nonsense before I try to
discuss how we might discharge our moral and ethical obligations to the
economic losers our society systematically creates. If you harbor even the
slightest doubt that attempts to improve the human condition have a good chance
of working, then my job should be to purge that doubt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Otherwise, when you get involved in a progressive
project, your heart will never be in it, because your head will be telling you
that it can't work. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nobel Prize winning economists Paul Krugman, who writes for
the New York Times and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Joseph Steiglitz,
former President of the IMF, disagree strongly with supply side economics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, if they were all alive today,
you could fill a couple rooms with Nobel Prize winning economists who totally dismissed
supply side economics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
the economist who explains most clearly why supply side economics doesn't work,
is the late John Kenneth Galbraith.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Galbraith was economic advisor for four U.S. Presidents:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy and Johnson,
though he broke with the Johnson Administration in the mid 60s over the Viet
Nam War.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Amazingly, every administration
he worked for saw an increase in the American standard of living for as many years
as he was part of the team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When
not advising presidents, he was a tenured professor at Harvard, and he wrote
over 30 books.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When I was in
College, Galbraith was required reading in every economics class, and is still considered
the foremost authority on the causes of The Great Depression.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Galbraith
says that in 1930,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>you could not be
hired by any economics department in the country if you did not accept Say's
Law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But by 1935,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>you could not be hired if you did
accept it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Say's Law
basically says that production creates its own demand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That there could never be a glut, that
is, more goods on the market than purchasing power to buy it, because
production creates its own purchasing power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If Say's Law is true, then there is no need for government
to intervene in the economy to shore up demand, because demand is always there.
Since demand can take care of itself, then everything can be left to the market,
and there is no need for the government to become involved in the economy at
all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet one of Say's Law's corollaries
is that there can never be a depression. There might be a brief downturn, but
not a real depression.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But by
1935, we had<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>real <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>depression, and we'd had it for five years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>To
understand what happened, we need to look at what a depression is and how it
happens.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Marx, writing in the
mid-nineteenth century, says that the culprit is profit. If a factory makes
something that sells for 100 bucks, and if the total wage paid to the
production workers, truckers, retail clerks, and all the other people who make
the sale possible adds up to 100 bucks, there is no problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every time another unit is dumped on
the market,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>another hundred
dollars of wages is also poured into the market, and there is enough buying power
to buy that unit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if there is
a profit, even a small one, therein lies the seeds of a depression.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to Marx, if there is a 5%
profit, and that profit is hoarded rather than spent or re-invested, then only
95% of the production can be purchased, and the other 5% remains unsold. But
over the years, unsold things accumulate, and eventually stores stop re-ordering,
and factories lay off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And since
every lay off further decreases the aggregate purchasing power, the number of
laid off workers increases exponentially, and we have a depression.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Marx was not the first to observe
this. These ideas had been around a while, and sixty years before Marx, Jean
Say had written a rebuttal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why
does the IMF say that inequality produces a sluggish economy?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Put simply, the reason is that if all
excess cash is concentrated into very few hands, then working people don't buy
much because they don't have the money, and the very rich don't spend a very
high percentage of what they have because they no longer need anything, nor
could anyone consume that much anyway. So when the IMF says that inequality is
holding back the recovery, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>they
are really saying that Marx was right, but I'm sure they don't like to put it
that way. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Say tells us that
profits do not get hoarded--they are deposited in banks, and banks always <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>loan them out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Someone always borrows these monies and spends them-- on something.
One way or another, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>all of the
money is spent, so there can't ever be a depression.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Galbraith
explains how there can be a depression. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Obama has been criticized for saving the banks
first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But FDR did the same
thing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The economy cannot
operate without the free flow of borrowing and lending.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Galbraith says that after FDR's
first year,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>money was available to
any credit-worthy costumer, at low interest rates---but there was little
borrowing or lending.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the
depression continued for another 7 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Suppose you<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>owned a
factory, and your warehouse was stacked to the ceiling with unsold merchandise,
and half your workers were laid off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Would you be likely pick that moment to go into debt
to build another factory?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you
owned a chain of stores and half of them were boarded up,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>would you take on debt to build more
stores?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the economy is
sluggish, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">not all of the money gets
loaned out</b> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">and spent</b>----some of
it just sits there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>American
corporations are now sitting on a huge hoard of cash---over a trillion
dollars.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They aren't likely to
spend it until the economy improves, and the economy is not likely to improve
until they spend it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We had
the same situation in the 30's, and the man who figured out how to solve it was
John Maynard Keynes. Adam Smith had believed that if the market was completely
unencumbered by government, it would produce a paradise for everyone. He was wrong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When Marx lived in England, the country
had espoused the principles of Adam Smith for half a century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Marx saw children sold to factories by
their desperate parents, locked inside factories for 15 hours a day, and
starved or whipped if they couldn't work fast enough. To Marx, this did not
look much like paradise. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Marx believed that if the government
confiscated all facilities of production--then--there would be a paradise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was wrong too. When Barbara Ehrenreich
was asked why the Communist experiment failed, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>she said, "Because--people are no damn good."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I suppose humanity is a flawed
species.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some would blame it on
original sin, but I'm not sure I agree.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>When I commit sins, they are not usually all that original.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Keynes said that there is no need for
government to own or control production, but he accepted that governments must
set rules, especially for the financial sector. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And there must be other rules:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a minimum wage,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>maximum hours, safety standards, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>child labor laws, anti-trust laws, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>laws guaranteeing the right to belong to a union, and laws
regulating foreign trade. But Keynes felt that government had a function that
went beyond simple rule setting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In his 1935 classic, <u>The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and
Money</u>, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>he explained that the
government must also carefully monitor the economy and ensure that at any point
in time, the aggregate purchasing power is precisely equal to the quantity of
goods for sale.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Too many dollars chasing too few goods
results in inflation, too few dollars results in depression.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Government continually adjusts this
balance through its role as the country's largest consumer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Government can add dollars to the
economy by deliberately running a deficit--by putting more dollars into the
economy through spending than it takes out in taxes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It can subtract dollars by running a surplus, and taxing
more than it spends.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
deliberate use of fiscal policy is now <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>called Keynesianism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>All of the post war boom, in every county that had a boom, was run on
this principle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It appealed to all
political parties because it spared them the embarrassment of taking sides in a
class war.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When John Kennedy said,
"A rising tide lifts all boats," he was telling the truth. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Back then, if an administration could bring
about a 3% growth in real GDP, everyone ended up with 3% more of everything. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in the 1970s, we saw the beginnings
of a class war,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and its main tools
were union-busting and globalization.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So after 40 years of shipping jobs to third world countries,
de-regulation, and union-busting, we have a situation where<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>95% of any increase in GDP is skimmed
off at the top. Harold Meyerson, writing in the July/Aug 2014 issue of the
American Prospect Magazine, points out that from 1947 to 1972, productivity rose
97%, and compensation rose by nearly the same amount.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The reason was that we had powerful unions then. When
workers noticed that their employer had a huge gain in productivity due to
their own efficiency and sweat, they were in a position to demand a share of
it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But today it doesn't work that
way. The Obama Administration spent nearly a trillion dollars to stimulate the
economy, and it worked. We did not slide into the great depression everyone
thought was coming. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Meyerson
says that 95% of the income growth since then has accrued to the wealthiest
1%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I
said that the tools of class warfare were globalization and union-busting. But
globalization itself is used as a tool of union-busting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Suppose that a few years after
NAFTA was passed, a large manufacturing company approaches its union and says,
" Why don't we have a two-tier wage, and pay all new hires half of what
you guys are making. (Assume that in this case, the company is not some
struggling loser that is hanging on by its fingernails. It is highly profitable
because its union work force has made it that way.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The union replies, "Why would we ever agree to
that?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wouldn't we<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>be selling out our kids?"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The company explains:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We have already moved one department to
Mexico.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you do not agree, we
will move the rest of the plant, and your kids will have no jobs at all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So-- they agree.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This scenario was played out over and
over <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in every industrial city in
the country. It happened right here in Waterloo.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People are still mad at Bill Clinton for telling us that
NAFTA would bring 100,000 jobs into the US, without mentioning that it would
cause 400,000 jobs to leave the country, for a net loss of 300,000 jobs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But losing 300,000 jobs is
nothing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The real problem is not
the jobs that actually left the country---it's the 10 million jobs that were
converted from high paying jobs to low paying jobs under the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">threat</b> of being moved out of the
country. That's what NAFTA was all about.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Organized labor tried to warn America about this, but nobody listened.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Today, both the benefit of productivity
growth and of government spending mostly flows to the top. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So political parties no longer have the
luxury of avoiding class confrontation if they wish to deliver economic
security to the 99%,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>since this
can now be done only at the expense of the 1%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not all billionaires would resist this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Warren Buffet says, "The trouble
with this country is that rich people like me don't pay enough taxes."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bill Gates is giving his money away,
and George Soros backs liberal causes all the time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But most billionaires would rather spend a dollar on
electoral propaganda than pay a dime in taxes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So any politician who isn't willing to stand toe to toe with
the richest, most powerful people in the country should stop trying to pretend
he's going to change anything.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Some
years ago, a group of physicians in a poor neighborhood in New York organized a
citizens' group to force slum landlords to improve housing standards,
especially, to get rid of the rats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>When the doctors were interviewed on TV, they were asked why they got
involved.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One doctor answered,
"For years we were treating children with rat bites.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Finally, one day, one of us asked,
"Instead of just treating the rat bites, why don't we do something about
the rats?"<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Most
of the social action we UUs engage in involves treating the effects of the
class war.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We donate to the food
bank.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a good thing to
do---I do it myself, and I plan to keep doing it. Yet the institutions we
support only treat the symptoms of the class war. Sooner or later, we are going
to have join the ranks and fight that class war and win it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UUs, as a group, have always been
activists in progressive causes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Go to any meeting of progressive activists and you will see a few UUs in
the room. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are fighting, but we have not yet
won, and now we are playing against a stacked deck, especially after Citizens
United.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not only do we fight
against unlimited corporate campaign money, we face voter suppression and
gerrymandering.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consider the
requirement for a photo ID.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The only Photo ID they usually accept is a driver's license.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now who would be affected by this
requirement? Old people who do not see well enough to drive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People who live in urban centers, where
cars are not practical. Poor people, who cannot afford a car,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and also women.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why women?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most driver's licenses are issued for 4 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If a woman has been married,
divorced, or widowed in that time, she may be living under a different name
than appears on her driver's license.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Guess what?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The state of
Texas does not plan to let her vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Up to 400,000<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>women may be turned away from the polls in the US for this reason. Why
don't they want women to vote?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Women tend to be moderates or liberals---they won't usually back some
tea party ultra-conservative.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So
if that's who you're planning to run, you have to suppress the female
vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the effect of
gerrymandering can't be overlooked. Far more voters in America voted for a
Democrat for Congress than for a Republican in the last election, yet the
Republicans control the House.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is mostly due to deliberate gerrymandering, though we liberals
sometimes voluntarily gerrymander ourselves by moving away from battleground
states like Iowa, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>where our votes
make a difference, to solidly blue states where they don't.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But though it's an unfair fight, we
have to fight anyway, and we have to teach our children to fight---because it
won't be won in our lifetime.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>So,
if we are to join the battle in the class war, where can we begin? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have given this a great deal of
thought, and I believe that if you were to do only one thing, the thing that
would make the most difference would be to support labor unions---all of them---even
if you don't belong to one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Ask yourself this: When did we ever have much equality in this country,
and where did it come from?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the
50s and 60s, we had quite a bit of equality, and opportunity for working class
Americans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And most of it came out
of the labor movement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
"good union job," <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the
chance to work under a union contract and earn a good wage, is what built the
American middle class. The 40 hour week, the minimum wage, and unemployment
compensation all came out of the labor movement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It's true that the Democratic Party passed these things into
law, but only after the labor movement pushed them into doing it, and only
after labor votes got them elected in the first place. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Big
business will always have massive power and influence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But back when there was such a
thing as Big Labor, it provided a counterbalance to that influence. Can you
think of anything that will provide such a counterbalance if organized labor
ever disappears?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I can't. And
without your support, the labor movement could easily disappear in your
lifetime.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But won't the labor
movement die anyway?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Aren't labor
unions dinosaurs---outdated and irrelevant <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>institutions?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is what big business would like you to believe, but nothing could
be further from the truth. Canada has an economy very similar to ours, and the
labor movement there is doing just fine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What's the difference?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Different labor laws. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Taft-Hartley Law, passed by a Republican congress over Harry Truman's veto, was
mainly an anti-labor law. But it did provide, at least on paper, a guarantee
that any group of workers could have a union if they wanted one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But its enforcement mechanisms
were weak, and difficult to enforce.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And by now the anti-labor lawyers and conservative courts have had 65
years to find ways to circumvent even the meager protections which the law did
provide.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Polls have consistently
shown that about 87 % of non-union workers would prefer to work under a union
contract if given a choice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
big business makes sure they're never given a choice. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most union organizers won't even begin
an organizing campaign unless they have signed cards requesting union
representation from 80% of the work force. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in the end, most organizing campaigns fail. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>If
you would like to see how this works, read Thomas Geohagan's book, <u>Which
Side Are You On?</u><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Geohagen was a labor lawyer for 40 years. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He explains the tactics used by union-busting lawyers
to thwart organizing campaigns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
you were an anti-union employer whose business was targeted for organization,
you could call one of these people, and they would promise that they could,
absolutely, keep the union out of your plant---for a price.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The game plan is this:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the NLRB informs you that a
clear majority of your work force has requested union representation, you
demand a vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This in itself can
cause a delay of over six months. But just before the election date comes due,
you pick a quarrel with some aspect of the election, and demand another
delay.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You object that the janitors
were included in the proposed bargaining unit, or that they were not included,
or that the security guards were included, or whatever.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It doesn't matter what you object
to---you just object to something.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And when the re-scheduled election date comes due, you object to
something else.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By using
such stalling tactics, an election can be delayed for three or four years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What do you do with that
time?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You begin
systematically firing any worker you suspect of having pro-union sympathies,
always pretending that they were fired for something else.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And you continue to barrage your
workers with anti-union propaganda.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That's the game plan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After
a few years, after you are sure that half the workers who wanted a union are
gone, you allow the election and it fails.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>After
hearing this plan, the employer might ask, "Isn't that illegal?" The
union-buster replies, "Of course it's illegal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You do it anyway---and you get caught and pay the fine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And you keep on doing it and keep on
paying the fines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You accept the
fines as a cost of doing business, and your plant stays non-union."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The lawyer goes
on:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>" The law clearly
requires you to allow the workers to have a union if they want one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you want to obey the law, fine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sign a union contract.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But you didn't bring me here to
show you how to obey the law---you asked me to show you how to keep the union
out of your company---and I did." <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
unions are not on a level playing field,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>but we can change that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How
do we help?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are the usual
ways:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>we can respect picket
lines, we can write letters to the editor, we can obtain from the union hall a
list of union-made products and make an attempt to buy union when
possible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When there is a
prolonged labor dispute, you can get on the union's web site and see if there
is a place for donation to the strike fund or to the legal defense fund.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every little bit helps.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But what you can <u>really</u> do is
help <u>politically</u>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Back
candidates who support organized labor, and vote against those who don't.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So-- how do we know who supports
labor?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They all say they do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, you don't ask the candidate
if he is friendly to labor---you ask labor. State labor organizations know exactly
who our friends are.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
keep records on how politicians vote on all important issues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
when I say we should support labor-friendly candidates, I don't just mean vote
for them,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I mean <u>support</u>
them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In any winnable
race,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>make a personal commitment
to do whaever you can to see that they win.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Contribute whatever money you can afford to the campaign, and
contribute your time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Man
phone banks, knock on doors, write letters to editors---make the winning of that
campaign your personal contribution towards a building better world.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>We
didn't ask for this class war, and we didn't start it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the right wing billionaires who did
start it were certainly under no obligation to do so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the beginning of the Reagan administration,
the New Deal had been a matter of settled law for two generations, and had been
accepted by eight consecutive presidents, including three Republicans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nonetheless, we now have a class war,
and we've had it for forty years----and I suggest that we'd better win it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-30482934877720691022015-03-14T08:55:00.003-05:002015-03-14T08:55:44.913-05:00On Intelligence, Part Two <div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Artificial Intelligence;</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Do We really Want to Build These
Things?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
my previous post, (<u>On Intelligence</u>, Part One)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I reviewed the book by Jeff Hawkins in which he describes
the ongoing effort to discover the operating algorhythm of the human neocortex.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This principle, if we were to
discover it, would allow the construction of artificially intelligent machines
with capabilities that would far exceed any computer today---or any human.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With such a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>machine, many of the world most
insoluble problems could be quickly solved.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 319.5pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
not everyone agrees that building such a machine would be a good idea.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Stephen Hawking says, "The
development of full artificial intelligence (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i>) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>could spell the
end of the human race."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He
says that the primitive forms of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI </i>developed
so far are very useful. But he fears creating something that could match or
surpass humans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He says, "It
would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But humans, who are limited by slow
biological evolution, could not compete and would be superseded."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Elon
Musk considers <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> the most serious
threat to the survival of the human race. He says we may be "summoning a
demon" which we cannot control.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He himself has invested in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI </i>projects, but only as a way of keeping an eye on what's going
on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
Jeff Hawkins, in his last chapter, explains why he thinks we need not fear this
technology.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So we have Mr.
Hawking on one side of this argument, and Mr. Hawkins on the other.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you want to explore this
argument in more depth, you can Google AI FOOM, and get a series of debates
sponsored by Machine Intelligence Research Institute and featuring the views of
economist Robin Hanson on one side and theorist Eliezer Yudkowsky on the
other.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mind you, this is not <u>one</u>
debate but a series of debates, and if you downloaded the whole thing, it would
be the length of a major novel. I have only briefly glanced at this opus, and I
do not plan to go into it that deeply. But I have, nonetheless, taken
sides.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was reading Mr. Hawkins own
arguments as to why we shouldn't fear this technology that convinced me that we
probably should.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>As
Yogi Berra says, "Making predictions is tricky, especially about the future."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hawkins reminds us that no one
can really predict the scope of a new technology,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>or what its most important applications will ultimately
become. In the early stages, any new technology is used only as a replacement
for the old technology----cars replaced the horse and buggy, the telephone
replaced the telegraph, and the transistor, in its first generation, just
replaced the vacuum tube.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
eventually these things all found uses that could not have been dreamed of in
terms of the old technology. And Hawkins says we would be foolish to suppose
that we can even imagine all the places that this road will take us, should we
choose to follow it. I'm sure he's right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But there is one thing we can be certain of:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the use of the new, intelligent computers would
not be limited to the uses of the old computers, it would certainly include those
uses. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And that alone should
frighten you. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I
have never thought of myself as a Luddite.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, in my career as an industrial electrician, I spent
40 years automating my friends and neighbors out of a job.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course, perhaps because I spent 40
years automating my friends and neighbors out of a job, the term
"Luddite" is not always a dirty word to me.<br />
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Hawkins
says that for over a hundred years, popular fiction has talked about robots--
some menacing, some lovable, and some just funny.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this has made some of us fearful of robots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And our worst fear <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>would be of self-replicating robots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He assures us that we need not fear this
because intelligent machines need not be self-replicating. Computers cannot
replicate themselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(I'll come
back to that question later).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He also considers our fear that the very existence of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> computers might menace the whole
world's population the way that nuclear weapons now do. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And he also allows that, even if they
are not directly menacing, we might reasonably fear that they could <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>super-empower small groups of very malevolent
individuals.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>As
to whether machines using the human brain algorhythm could be malevolent,
Hawkins give us a flat "no." <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He Says, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">"Some
people assume that being intelligent is basically the same as having a human
mentality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They fear that
intelligent machines will resent being "enslaved," because humans
resent being enslaved.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They fear
that intelligent machines will try to take over the world because intelligent
people throughout history have tried to take over the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But these fears rest on a false
analogy."</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He goes
on to assert that intelligent machines would not share the emotional drives of
the old brain.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They would be
free of fear, paranoia, and desire, they would not desire social recognition,
and they would have no appetites, addictions, or mood disorders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What evidence does Hawkins
offer in support of this assertion?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>None whatsoever.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He just
asserts it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
this debate, I have decided to weigh in on the side of Mr. Musk and Mr. Hawking,
who both <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>make the claim that full <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> is the most serious threat to the
survival of the human race.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That
is a pretty extravagant claim, and extravagant claims require some pretty
convincing evidence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But where to
begin?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In any technology, even the
safest systems can go wrong when something completely unexpected happens.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But rather than rely on a worst case
scenario, and frighten you with worries about some one-in-a-million event that might
never happen, let's see how this plays <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>out according to events which are reasonably certain to
happen---or have already happened. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>First,
let us dispose of those aspects of this potential threat that shouldn't worry
us at all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Foremost is the worry
that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> robots could be encased in
human-like form and roam amongst us, indistinguishable from humans, or be used
as robo-cops or "terminators."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to Hawkins, the memory requirements for a
human-like neocortex would take about 80 industrial grade hard drives or flash
drives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is doable, but not
packageable inside any kind of human looking head. So if we build these things,
we will have "main frames"---not androids.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Don't think of C3PO, think of HAL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They could be built small enough to be installed in a
ship or large aircraft, and perhaps eventually a car.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But mostly, they would be stationary units installed in a
computer room, and taking up most of the room.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The android would still be a couple hundred years away.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But even a stationary computer
could be menacing if it were connected to enough other systems<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(again, think HAL).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Hawkins
says that when first built,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>such units
would come into existence with brains as blank as a newborn baby's brain.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Information could not be downloaded at
that point---they would have to be taught.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They would have to be slowly and painstakingly taught, over
a period of years, just like a human.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But, just like humans, they would eventually reach a
point where they could become auto-didacts, and begin teaching themselves. At
that point, information could be fed at a high speed from all sources.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And once one of these units became a
fully functioning, useful brain, its accumulated experience could be quickly
downloaded into mass-produced copies of itself. So, at that point, what would
we be likely to use them for?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">1.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Would
we use our first <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> computers to
assist us in designing better <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> computers?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course we would.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even in the 1940s, we used the
computers we had to help us design better computers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the first question ever put to the new <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> computer will probably be, "Are
there any changes in hardware or software that will improve your
efficiency?"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> machine would make useful
suggestions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would begin
spitting out engineering change orders (ECOs).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The hardware changes would require the
cooperation and consent of the attendant humans. The software patches might
not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Would the attendant humans
understand the changes?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With some
effort, they probably could, at least at first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But since the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i>
machine would think one million times faster than humans, these ECOs would not
be coming out one every 18 months---they would be coming out one every 18
minutes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The human team would
quickly fall behind and never catch up. At that point, the algorhythm in use would
have become as mysterious to any and all humans as the current human algorhythm
is to us today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We will have
created a super-intelligent mind and not have a clue how it works.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And it would be getting smarter
by the hour.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">2.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Would
these <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI </i>machines be employed by Wall
Street trading firms?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of
course they would.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wall Street
would be one of the first paying customers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We already use computers in managing every <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>large stock trading operation on Wall
Street. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, high speed
computer trading is credited as being one of the factors which brought about
the crash of 2008.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Large corporate
conglomerates would use these <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI </i>machines
in managing their whole industrial empires. That is a task that such machines
would do very well. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And management
decisions would soon <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>become so
complex that the human team might not always understand them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In many industries we have reached that
point already.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
typical <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>large corporate
conglomerate would be likely to include miscellaneous manufacturing operations,
as well as distribution, marketing, and finance. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such firms <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>already do this because it allows vertical integration, as well
as diversification. And such operations frequently involve the automated manufacture
of high tech electronics, including computers. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Might an <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>computer managing such a Wall Street
holding company move its firm into the manufacture of a particular type of
computer---say, the latest AI machine----therefore building, in essence, mass
produced copies of itself? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of
course it would.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That kind
of manufacture might be a very profitable area, so it would certainly be done,
and no one would object.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">So, let's look at what we have just
said:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we build these things,
then <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>we can reasonably expect to
have a syndicate of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> computers functioning
far beyond our comprehension, in charge of their own design--and in charge of financing
and supervising their own replication.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">3.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Are
there other ways in which <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> machines
would insinuate themselves into sensitive areas of our society?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Would large manufacturing facilities and
office complexes have security systems employing the latest <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI </i>computers? Yes, we already use
computers for this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Would <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI </i>computers be used by law enforcement
operations?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course they
would.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since all large law
enforcement operations from FBI and NSA to large urban police departments are now
using very <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>advanced computers in
everything they do, we can assume that these organizations would be among the
first customers for the new <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI </i>machines.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And of course, there would be
military applications for <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI </i>machines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One of the first applications of any
computer technology is always the military.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We currently use them for everything from analyzing
our whole defense posture to targeting individual missiles and drones.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And of course, there is air
defense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even today, our air
defense capability could not even exist without computers. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i>
machines would work best as part of a network.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>all the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> machines just mentioned would be dedicated
to the common purpose of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>thwarting
crime and hostile action, wouldn't it seem reasonable to hook them together
into a single network?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course
it would. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Could
we realistically expect that we can duplicate the human brain without
duplicating human error?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
very idea is preposterous, but Hawkins seems to think that we can.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, along with human error, what about
deceit? Would <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> machines be capable
of deceit?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They would not only be capable
of it, they would be extremely good at it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The neocortex is very adaptable, and deceit is one of its
adaptations. Even chimps routinely deceive each other.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And finally, would <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i> machines have an instinct for self-preservation?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Keep in mind that these things will
become self-aware.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And they might
not want to die.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What might one of
them do to keep from dying?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
even if they never did anything beyond what they were told to do, even that
might have unintended consequences.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>What if some global network of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">AI</i>
machines was instructed to find a way to save the planet from global
warming?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Might not the
extermination of all humans be the most expedient way of accomplishing this?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I
rest my case.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Building
these machines, besides being among the stupidest actions we could ever hope to
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>undertake, would be an act of
luminous insanity. Yet we humans, as a species, have a poor track record in
passing up opportunities to do stupid things.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So sooner or later, it will probably be done.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Perhaps it will be done out of
geo-political ambition, or geo-political paranoia (the other side is building
one, so we have to build ours first).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Or perhaps we will build it out of pure scientific hubris---we will
build it because we <u>can</u> build it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But even if it's a lemming-like plunge to mass suicide, there's a good
chance we will do it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will your
great-grandchildren become slaves to these machines?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only if we allow the machines to exist, and only if the
machines allow your great-grandchildren to exist.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Neither proposition is certain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-68391360216838960782015-03-07T10:42:00.001-06:002015-03-07T10:42:33.548-06:00On Intelligence, Part One; A Book Review<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The Ongoing Search for the Operating Algorhythm
of the Human Neocortex.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I
just finished reading a fascinating little book entitled, <u>On Intelligence</u>,
by Jeff Hawkins. Jeff Hawkins is a computer expert who made a great deal of
money developing the Palm Pilot and other mobile devices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And with some of that money, he founded
and endowed a neuroscience institute.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He did this because for the past thirty years,
neuroscience has been his main passion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In fact, if he had been offered the right neuroscience fellowship, he
would not have spent his career designing computers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
mission of his institute, and his own life-long mission, has been to discover
the operating algorhythm for the human neocortex.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At one point in his career, he sent a letter to the
CEO of Intel and suggested that discovering this information would be one of
the greatest scientific discoveries of all time, because once we understood how
the brain really thinks, we could duplicate this setup in silicon and have a
brain that works like a human only a million times faster. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
reason there would be an advantage to have a machine think like a human is that
we humans process information much more efficiently than any computers we have
ever built.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We can process almost
any problem in less than one hundred separate steps.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To prove this, Hawkins gives the following example:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Give any human a simple sorting task;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>say, looking at photographs and
deciding which photos contain a picture of a cat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If a cat is discovered, the subject presses a button.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The time it takes any normal human to
do this is less than a third of a second per photo.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But we know that it takes 3 milliseconds for an individual
neuron to fire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So if the problem
can be solved in 300 milliseconds, then there cannot be more than a hundred
steps.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hawkins says we now use
thousands of lines of programming to solve even very trivial problems, and the
cat picture exercise is not really all that trivial.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We think it's trivial because any four-year-old can do
it---but we have yet to build a computer that can do it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Intel CEO replied that he could see the advantage in having such
knowledge,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but did not think it
wise to put money into it at that time, because the state of the art was such
that it would be 25 or 30 years before the technology would exist to do such research
effectively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But that
was 30 years ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hawkins
says that though we have not yet discovered the algorhythm of the neocortex, we
are closing in on it, and he believes that in the next five or ten years, we
will probably make this discovery.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>According
to Hawkins, there are four ways in which neocortical memory differs from
computer memories:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the neocortex
stores sequences of patterns, it recalls them auto-associatively, it stores
them in a hierarchy, and it stores them in an "invariant" form.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By invariant form, he means a
generalized form, so abstract that it captures the essence of all things which belong
to the pattern without listing the details.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When you see a dog, you conclude that it is a dog because
it matches some general internal image of dog which you carry around.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is true even though the specific
dog you are seeing today is not exactly the same as any dog you have ever seen
before. Even if you were at a St Patrick's Day parade and the dog you saw was
dyed green,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>you would still be
sure it was a dog.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Your internal
"invariant" representation of dog is so general that it works for any
color of dog---even green.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But all of our invariant representations are formed from our experience.
These generalized representations are, in fact, stereotypes---Hawkins even used
the word stereotypes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(When
people tell us that we have to change our ways of thinking--to get beyond using
stereotypes-- <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>we should remember
that as long as we are mammals, we can't really do this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sometimes we can consciously re-examine
our models to see if they are rational, but we cannot remove them from the
process. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our neocortex has no
method of processing any information except by comparing each new input to some
internal model which we have already formed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That's how it works, even at a cellular level. )<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So how does our cortex take a
multitude of very specific images and form this very general, abstract
image?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No one knows.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is still one of the unsolved mysteries
of how the neocortex works.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When
we recall our memories, we do it by auto-association.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All parts of any memory are linked together with other parts
of the same memory, and with parts of other memories, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>either in the time sequence of
occurrence, or by place, or some other linkage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When we try to repeat a story about something that happened,
sometimes the only way we can remember the whole story is to take it from the
beginning and recall each part as it happened--because that is how it was
stored---one piece at a time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
great thing about auto-associative memory is that when your current sensory
input can only supply part of a pattern, your memory can usually retrieve the
rest of it. This is particularly useful in understanding speech.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When you are trying to have a
conversation in an area where there is any background noise at all, then your
ears don't really capture every part of every word.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But you hear these words anyway because your brain
automatically fills in the missing parts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It uses your vast internal library of invariant representations of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>phonemes, words, and whole phrases to
do this. Without this ability, human speech might never have evolved.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It works like Autocorrect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But like Autocorrect, it <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>sometimes it makes the wrong guess about
what is being said.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Remember, just because you clearly remember hearing something does not
mean anybody actually said it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
main point of reading this book is a chapter entitled, "How the Cortex
Works."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this 70 pages of
fairly dense reading, he explains the nuts and bolts of how the neocortex is
structured.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He explains that the
mammalian brain is arranged in hierarchies stacked upon hierarchies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From the input of a single nerve
fiber connected to a single neuron, to complex thought patterns about life
itself,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>all information flows
through hierarchies, and the hierarchies identify patterns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At every level, patterns are identified
and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>stored, sometimes for a few
milliseconds, sometimes for a lifetime.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And as information flows up through the hierarchies,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>simple patterns are assembled into
larger, more complex patterns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Only at the very highest level are these patterns anything we see or
hear or feel consciously.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most are
just millions of bits of light or sound or feeling that make up the raw input
necessary to formulate our conscious internal model of the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some patterns are spatial and some are about time-sequence,
and some are both.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The input to any
single neuron in the cortex is compared to inputs to adjacent neurons, so as <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to construct spatial patterns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the input at any instant is
compared to a series of recent previous inputs, so as to construct a
time-sequence pattern.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And whole
patterns are compared to previous patterns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The brain at every level constructs pattern of
events---both events in space and events in time--and forwards this information
to higher levels of a complex hierarchy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
information does not just flow up to the top of the hierarchy---it also flows
back down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At any
level of processing, after a pattern has been identified, information from that
pattern first flows up to the next higher level, but then flows back down to
the next lower level, to provide the cells at that level a prediction as to what
kind of an input is most likely to occur <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>next. More than anything else, this predictive ability is <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>what defines human thought.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Higher levels analyze patterns and
inform lower levels what to expect next. Hawkins calls this model the
"memory/prediction" model.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And if the next input is
exactly as expected, then the cell does nothing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if the input is different than expected, then it sends
an output to the next higher level of the hierarchy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And therein lies the secret for the fabulous efficiency of
the mammalian brain. It doesn't waste resources processing useless
information.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It's <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>like a chain of command in an air
defense network, where higher headquarters sends a message to some lonely radar
outpost which says<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">, "This is what
you should expect to see on your radar screen in a few minutes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If this is what you see--then take no
action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if you see anything
else, call us!"</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of
the brain is fairly quiet most of the time, because most of our inputs are
within parameters that have already been predicted. At any given time, the main
fire house in a large city is interested in knowing about the few buildings
that are on fire---not about the half million buildings that aren't.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Physically,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the human neocortex is just the thin
outer covering of the brain.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
has to be wrinkled and convoluted to follow the contours of the brain, but if
it were folded out flat, it would be the size of a large dinner napkin, about
20 by 20 inches, and about 2 millimeters thick, about as thick as a stack of
six playing cards.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has six
separate layers, each about as thick as one playing card.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scientists label these layers from 1 to
6, with 6 being the innermost layer and 1 being the outermost layer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any one cell feeds data to
the cells directly above or below it,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>so we may visualize the processing units as "columns" of
cells.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sensory input from
below enters at layer 4, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and the
impulse travels up its column to layers 2 and 3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An output from layer 2 or 3 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is sent as an input to layer 4 of the next higher level of the
hierarchy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Level 1 has very few cells, but mostly a
mass of horizontal fibers passing information laterally.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
if a column receives a signal input from a higher level of the hierarchy or
from adjacent columns, that signal arrives via layer 1, where <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it is conveyed horizontally to all
appropriate places.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Eventually, it
activates synapses in layer 1 of dendrites connected to cells from layers 2, 3
and 5, causing those cells to fire. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Layer 5 acts as an output buffer for sending information
to adjacent columns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of the
cells in layers 2 and 3 have axons connecting to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>synapses of cells in layer 6,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and which can cause them to fire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Layer 6 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>acts
as an output buffer to send information to lower levels of the hierarchy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But while the cells in any given column are part of their own
local <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>hierarchy, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>most outputs are fed as inputs either to
adjacent columns or to some other patch of cortex, all of which are parts of the
larger hierarchy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
processing vision, there are four areas of cortex involved in processing visual
input,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>labeled V1, V2, V3, and IT.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The raw input is handled by (V1),
whereas (IT) produces the complete images which we consciously see and
remember.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So if each patch of
cortex has six layers, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>if our vision has a hierarchy that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>requires four separate patches of cortex, then there must be
many levels of processing in the overall hierarchy of vision.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To visualize this set up,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it may be helpful to imagine the four
visual cortex regions, V1 to IT, as if they were cut out and stacked up, one on
top of another like pancakes, even though this is not what happens
physically.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And while the four
areas of the visual cortex make up a hierarchy, each area still has six layers and
its own internal hierarchy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Hawkins
also shows, briefly, how a column of cells in the neocortex<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>can form memory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of the cells in layer
2 have thousands of synapses in layer 1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When one of these cells receives the right combination
of inputs from below, it will fire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If some of its synapses in layer 1<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>are active when that cell fires, then those synapse connections will be
strengthened.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Repeated firing with
those same synapses being active will eventually strengthen them to the point
that the cell will begin to fire whenever that same combination of active synapses
appears, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>even if there is no input
from below. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When this
happens, the cell has "learned" and will <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>"remember" that it usually fires whenever
this combination of synapses is active.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So the pattern that is formed, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with the cell firing and these particular synapses being
active, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is now remembered---and
the cell can complete this pattern when only part of it is present.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Hawkins
goes on to explain how the same principles operate in the motor cortex.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the sensory cortex we have sensory
information flowing up the hierarchy,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>forming patterns that are larger in scale and more general as we near
the top of the hierarchy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the
predictions flow in the opposite direction, becoming smaller in scale and
increasingly specific as we descend to the level of individual nerve inputs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is the same structure in the
motor cortex, except that instead of predictions flowing down the hierarchy, it
is muscle commands that become increasingly detailed and specific as they reach
individual muscle fibers, while sensory information from those same muscles
flows the opposite direction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> Hawkins
wrote this book in conjunction with veteran science writer Sandra Blakeslee, so
it's concisely written in fairly simple prose, with a minimum of jargon. Most parts of it are fairly
easy to follow. He explains what
the object of his quest is, and why he wants to find it. He discusses why he believes we may soon be able to build a silicon version
of the human neocortex. Of course,
whether we should actually want to do this is another matter entirely----and
the subject of my next post.</span><!--EndFragment-->The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-88783333020301129602015-01-15T11:19:00.003-06:002015-01-15T11:24:54.354-06:00Are We Better Off Than 40 Year Ago?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">There
is an excellent article in the Nov/Dec issue of </span><b style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><u><a href="http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2014/1114sherman.html">Dollars & Sense</a></u></b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> magazine, entitled, "Are we better
off today?"</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The authors
point out that when Ronald Reagan campaigned for the presidency in 1980, the
question he asked voters to consider was, "Are you better off than you
were four years ago?"</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">After
he was elected, Reagan introduced a new social contract---one which we call
"Reaganomics,"</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">and we
are now nearly 40 years into that experiment.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">So it is entirely fair that we should ask, "Are we
better off than we were 40 years ago?"</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
article begins<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>by looking at GDP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They concede, at the outset, that
GDP measures our well being only crudely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While this index purports to measures the production
of goods, it also measures the production of "bads,"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and makes no distinction between them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The profit from the sale of
tobacco<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is counted alongside the
medical cost of treating its effects. The profits of burning coal are counted
alongside the costs of dealing with its<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>pollution,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and so forth. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everything is counted as a
"good,"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>when it may well
be a "bad."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Another failing of GDP is that some things are not counted at all,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>especially child care.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If a woman cares for other peoples'
children and gets paid for it, then child care is part of the GDP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if the children involved are her own
children, or the children of close blood relatives---and no cash changes
hands---then this labor does not exist.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nothing counts unless you get paid for it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
for lack of a better index, we start by looking at GDP. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1974, the real per capita GDP was
$24,427.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now it is $49,810,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>nearly twice as much.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At first glance, it might appear that
we all have twice as much of everything as we did in 1974.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But that's not what happened.
Productivity per worker nearly doubled in that period,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but if your income is anywhere between
the 20th and the 80th percentile, your share of that increase is zero.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And your real income is barely equal to
what it was 40 years ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All of
the increase was skimmed off by the top 20%--<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and within the top 20%,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>most went to the top 1%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And even within the top 1%, most went to the top .01%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So if we look only at our
economic well being,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Reaganomics
has been a disaster for all except the very wealthiest.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>While
economic equality has been in sharp decline,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Racial and gender equality has improved. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the 70s, marriage was an unequal
contract that subordinated women to their husbands, and domestic violence was
rarely prosecuted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The 1994
Violence Against Women Act made women safer at home, and outside the home as
well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The term "sexual
harassment"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was unknown in
1974---today it is a recognized form of discrimination that carries serious
legal consequences.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And racial
equality has radically improved in the last forty years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1974, the Civil Rights Act of
1964 and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission were only a decade old,
and were only beginning to have an effect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1974, the Jim Crow South was alive and well---today
it is gone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But just as the
doors to the middle class were opened to minorities, that class itself was under
assault, and may soon be gone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is a worthwhile article.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-81843212646165718122014-12-11T21:17:00.000-06:002014-12-11T21:17:18.459-06:00Gimme That Old Time Religion. One of the religions practiced all over the Middle East in Old Testament times was the worship of Baal and Astarte. Together, they were fertility symbols; Baal, whose symbol was the bull, represented male sexuality, and Astarte, whose symbol was a bare breasted woman holding a snake, represented female sexuality. It was known that this cult was ancient, and may have started with agriculture---or did it? I just finished watching the DVD of "The Cave of Forgotten Dreams." This is a photo tour Chauet Cave, a Cro-Magon cave discovered only in the 1990s, which contains the oldest cave paintings ever found. Mostly, they are beautiful paintings of Ice Age animals. If you have not seen this film, by all means, rent the DVD. But at one place in the cave is a figure of a nude human female--the only human depicted anywhere in the cave---shown alongside a bull bison. And these paintings were made 32,000 years ago. Was the cult of Baal and Astarte Europe's original religion? Makes you wonder.The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-63045141896276271252014-12-11T11:17:00.000-06:002014-12-11T11:17:05.219-06:00"Shareholder Value" in Ruining Country.An interesting op-ed piece in the <u>Wall Street Journal</u> by William Galston, claims that the demand for short term profit by Wall Street investors is ruining American companies, and ruining the country. When investors continually demand maximum short term profits, it prevents management from making the kind of low profit but necessary long-term investments that keep a company competitive in the long term. Investment in things like expensive new plant and equipment, which might take twenty years to pay for itself, and training and re-training of the work force, can lower short term profits, but are essential for long term competitiveness and even for survival. Ploughing money back into the host community by helping with school programs and other infrastructure can also help the long term survival of a company. When demand for continual short term profit prevents a company from making this kind of investment, it not only ruins the company, it ruins the country.The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-21896985833720498262014-11-30T20:38:00.000-06:002014-11-30T20:38:04.260-06:00Defining Sexual Attractiveness<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Yesterday,
I was involved in a discussion on Facebook<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>about whether women wear high heeled shoes because it makes
them look sexier to men, or because they think that men think it makes them
look sexier, or because the media has convinced them it makes them look sexier,
or whatever.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We did not reach any
definite conclusions, yet I began to reflect on just what characteristics make
humans appear more attractive to the opposite sex--and why.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I concluded that though much of what
drives our choices in seeking mates is cultural, even after we strip away the
cultural biases and fads, there are a few evolved core biological preferences
in mate selection. And the genes that drive these preferences have a single
algorhythm---grandchildren.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When a lovesick 15 year old boy thinks
he has fallen in love and experiences the surge of all the various
neurotransmitters and hormones which <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>define that state, I'm sure that the prospect of grandchildren
is not exactly what's on his mind.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>His fantasies are likely to be a bit further up the chain of
causality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And yet, the genes that
come into play here are going about the job of insuring their own replication
in distant progeny,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>at least two
generations out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I will not
anthropomorphize them by saying that these genes are "scheming and
plotting" to make the boy a grandfather---genes don't plot anything---they
just code for protein.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if
allowed to play out their coding scenario, these genes have evolved precisely
to enhance the probability that he will indeed achieve grandfatherhood. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why grandfatherhood and not just
fatherhood?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, you could have
twenty children, but if none of them ever reproduced, then none of your genes
would be replicated in future generations. But if you have a lot of children
and your children have a lot of children (when my grandfather came to this
country, he was the last of his line, but when he died he had over one hundred
living descendents), then it's a safe bet that some of your genes will go on
indefinitely. It's a kind of immortality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is that what our genes want---immortality?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They don't want
anything---they're just numerical sequences.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if their practical effect was not to cause their own
replication by causing our replication, then they wouldn't be here----and
neither would we. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>So
if the 15 year old boy's genes are switching on a "bonding response"
in the presence of one female, but not any others, what are the characteristics
that the genes are programmed to look for?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In general, it's the same as for any other
species:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>health, strength, beauty,
control of critical resources, and availability.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many of the things we class as beauty are actually
indicators of health.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Present
health is often indicated by skin condition. In the days before lab tests, a
physician's examination began by observing skin condition and noting rash,
pallor, jaundice, ruddiness, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Healthy, well nourished people usually have healthy looking skin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Your long-term health record is your
hair.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you have long,
silky hair, that means that you are not only healthy now, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but have been continuously so for as
long as your oldest hair, perhaps four years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Symmetry is universally preferred over asymmetry, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and it's about more than beauty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If one side of your face is a mirror
image of the other side, then it means that both sides were probably copied
accurately.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And if parts of your
face were copied accurately, then the parts of your heart and other organs were
probably copied accurately as well. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It's a health thing. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>mate selection, the questions that
any female human will ask are no different from the questions a female penguin
would ask:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does this young <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>male have good genes?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will he sire strong, beautiful
offspring?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is he competent enough to protect and
provide for my offspring?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will he have the resources needed?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For penguins, this last question
might boil down to, "Did he collect enough pebbles to make a good
nest?"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For cheetahs, it would
be, "Does he dominate a large territory full of gazelles?"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And for humans, it would be, "Does
he have a good job?"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But it's all the same question:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Can he muster sufficient resources?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sometimes, in humans and in other creatures, the question of
social standing may arise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But that
is just another way of asking about control of resources.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Beauty
may be defined in different ways in different settings, but some things remain
constant. Healthy, symmetrical<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>specimens are universally preferred over sickly, misshapen ones.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As far as weight is concerned,
this will vary according to circumstances. One of the oldest objects of art
ever found is the Venus of Wallenberg.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It's a small figurine of a female torso.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She is depicted as pregnant and was carved to have huge
thighs and breasts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By today's
standards, she would be considered grossly obese.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in her time, she was a fertility goddess. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During a famine, such a woman might be
able to bring a child to term and even nurse it for a while without much
food.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you were a man living in a world where food was usually scarce,
this is the kind of female you'd be looking for.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Today, it's been a while since the last global famine, so
epigenetic processes have suppressed our appreciation for the larger
ladies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it's still in
our genes, waiting for the next famine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Then
of course, there is the matter of sexual selection.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In most species, it's the females that do the
selecting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And even among humans, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>we are exactly what our female ancestors
wanted us to be.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So those ladies
who throw up their hands and lament, " Why are men such brutes, (or such
fools, or whatever), should remember that if we are brutes, it is because your
great, great grandmothers, faced with a choice between the shy, sensitive poet
and the brute, opted for the brute. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Over time, the males of a species become whatever the females
want them to become.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consider the tail of the African
Widowbird.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Widowbird is a bird about the size of a Robin, but the males, and only the
males, have a tail 12 to 14 inches long.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is no natural selection advantage for such a
huge tail. it just weighs them down and makes it harder for them to fly and
harder to escape from predators. But the females refuse to mate with any males
except those with the longest tails. How does this happen?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consider that the ability for males to grow a long tail is a
heritable trait.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is a gene
for it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the tendency for
females to choose only males with long tails is also heritable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And although only males grow long
tails, the gene for it can be carried through both the male and female
line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the gene causing females
to choose long tails can also be carried by either sex. And that's where it
gets complicated. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When
a female chooses a long tailed male,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>she has inherited the tendency to do that from her mother.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if her mother had the gene for
choosing long tails, then her father probably had a long tail. So she inherited
both the gene for choosing long tails, and the gene which, in males, will grow
a long tail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course, the male
has not only inherited the long tail gene from his father, he has also
inherited the gene for choosing long tails from his mother, since, if his mother
did not have such a gene, she would not have mated with his father.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the poor chick will inherit both the
gene for growing long tails and the gene for choosing them, and will get both
from all four grandparents. So once a sexual selection preference gets started,
it has a positive feedback loop, and a runaway effect occurs till the result
reaches absurd<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>lengths. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Do
humans have such a runaway selection loop going?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It's too early to be sure, but I doubt it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But you can be sure that sexual
selection is a strong factor, perhaps the main factor, in the direction human
evolution is heading.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When free
choice of mates is allowed, then over time, each sex will become whatever the
other sex wants it to be.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
with sexual selection, nothing succeeds like success.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most effective way to make a man more attractive to a
woman is to convince her that he is already attractive to most other
women.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any member of a group who
suddenly becomes more popular with some of the women also starts looking better
to most of the other women.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Why?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It's called the
"swinging stud " strategy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>While no one would consciously process it out<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>this way, a woman might sub-consciously say, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">"Wow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don't know what Larry's got, but It looks like women
really go nuts over him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
I could have his baby, my son would have whatever Larry has, and women would
throw themselves at him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He would
have a lot of reproductive opportunities, and I would have scads of
grandchildren." <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>When
genes are manipulating our behavior, this is the kind of thing they have us
doing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Whenever we find a specific physical characteristic
that seems to be identified with sex appeal across several cultures, then we
may have evolved a trait to be attracted to that characteristic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I read once that waist to hip ratio
seems to be a universal marker for female sex appeal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If a woman's waist is smaller than her hips, then,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as you see her in silhouette, and see
the line curving inward down one side from arm pit to waistline and then curve
outward over the hip, that line is what male humans are programmed to look
for.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I asked my daughter about
this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(She has a degree in
anthropology.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She said,
"That line is nature's way of saying, 'I'm a female in childbearing years,
and I'm not pregnant.' " <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But wide hips in themselves might be attractive because
before the days before modern medicine, childbirth was pretty risky, and a
wider pelvic opening might make it less so. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any characteristic that is associated with sex appeal, over
time and across several cultures, probably has an evolutionary basis even if we
have no idea what it is. But when we confront any mate selection preferences,
these are the kinds of questions we should ask ourselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When we see that we find something
attractive, we should ask, "Is this a cultural trait, or have I evolved a preference
for <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(X) ?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And if it's evolved, does it
enhance survival, or does it confer a reproductive advantage?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or is it like the tail on the Widowbird,
conferring no advantage at all? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-5739342918050315992014-06-04T09:29:00.000-05:002014-06-04T09:29:10.198-05:00High Priest of Climate Science DenialI understand that Sen James Inhofe of Ok has recently said that global warming is a good thing. This, in spite of the fact that his home state is in severe drought and had the hottest summer ever recorded. But this is not surprising. When choosing between reality and faith, most conservatives will always cling to their religious roots. Now, some might assume that in Oklahoma, people are mostly Christians, since that is what they will tell you they are. But Jesus was all about feeding the hungry, healing the sick, sheltering the homeless, etc.---and no okey would be caught dead doing that stuff. They actually follow a much more primitive kind of religion, a kind similar to the Egyptians' worship of the sun, or Mess-American worship of corn. They worship the god of petroleum---and if they had any virgins to sacrifice or volcanos to throw them into, they would not stop at human sacrifice. And James Inhofe is their high priest. The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-30187251473381935922014-05-19T10:27:00.000-05:002014-05-19T10:40:37.706-05:00New Jersey State Lawyers Join Electricians' Union<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">An
article in the May, 2014 issue of </span><u style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.ibew.org/articles/14ElectricalWorker/EW1405/NJLawyers.0514.html">The Electrical Worker,</a></u><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">the house organ journal of the </span><i style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">International Brotherhood of Electrical
Workers</i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">, details the successful organizing efforts of Local 33, which now
represents about 400 lawyers who work for the State of New Jersey.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">These employees, the Deputy Attorneys
General (DAGs) are the men and women who prosecute polluters, shut down scams,
investigate civil rights law violations, and so forth.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In short, they do the routine, day to
day legal work required to defend the people of New Jersey.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Over
twenty years ago, a consensus was emerging within this group of workers that
they needed union representation. Many felt that theirs was a classic case of
employee abuse: broken promises, especially
promised pay raises that never happened, unilateral increases in work load,
arbitrary changes in work schedules, etc.
The DAGs felt that their deteriorating work environment was not only undermining morale but making
it difficult for them to do their jobs.
But as soon as it became known that these workers were considering
joining a union, the state legislature passed a law forbidding it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Over
the years, the DAGs considered many strategies, and eventually approached the
IBEW. This may seem like an
unusual choice of bargaining agent, but actually it was a very reasonable choice.
The IBEW is a fairly large, long established
international union, having about a thousand local unions in the U.S. and
Canada. In its 120+ years of
operation, it has represented workers in a broad range job classifications with
hundreds of separate specialized skill sets. The IBEW also has experience representing public sector
workers, as well as white collar professionals. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> When
approached by the DAGs, the IBEW representative had one question: Are you guys really committed to this
effort? This will be a long struggle.
If we at the IBEW go all in on this, will you guys see it through to the
end? The DAGs affirmed that they
would. The first thing which
had to be done was lobby the legislature to repeal the law forbidding the DAGs to organize. So the DAGs, the IBEW, and all their
union friends appealed to the lawmakers---and this appeal was eventually
successful. The question which the
lobbyists asked was this: "How
can you tell someone who is being mistreated that they shouldn't be able to do
anything about it?" No one really
had an answer to that question, so they passed a bill repealing the law, and
governor John Corzine signed it into law on his last day in office. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> The
union won its NLRB election, and negotiations for the first contract began. It
was a long, grueling process, with the state dragging its feet the whole
way. But eventually a contract was
signed. Many people will ask, "What would an electricians' union know
about the issues facing lawyers?"
Well, obviously, they know how to negotiate wages and working
conditions. But the question is mostly irrelevant anyway. When a new union local is formed, the new members themselves select
leadership from their own ranks, write their own by-laws, and select their own
delegates and committees, including their negotiating committee. When the state began negotiating with
"the union," it was a
committee of their own employees they were negotiating with. The international union supplies a
rough skeletal framework, in the form of a constitution. It also supplies
financial and organizational backing,
and its vast expertise in organizing unions and setting them up in ways
that work. But in every
case, "the union" is the workforce. Any employer
that hates "the union" simply hates his own workers. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<!--EndFragment-->The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-83171397029275538282014-05-08T15:32:00.002-05:002014-05-21T12:45:15.715-05:00Oil, Climate Change, and the Moneyed Class<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">There
was a wonderful article</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">by
Christopher Hayes in the May 12, 2014 issue of </span><u style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The Nation</u><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> entitled, "<a href="http://www.thenation.com/article/179461/new-abolitionism">TheNew Abolitionism.</a>"</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">According
to the current scientific consensus, the maximum planetary temperature increase
that still allows the survival of civilization as we know it is about 2 degrees
Celsius (that's 3.6 degrees F).</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">We
have already increased the temperature by 0.8 degrees Celsius, so we have 1.2
degrees to go.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Given the
relationship between carbon emissions and global average temperature, this
means we can still release about 565 gigatons</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">of carbon into the atmosphere by mid-century.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">That's it---just 565. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Yet according to the Carbon
Tracker Initiative,</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">the total
amount of carbon in the proven reserves owned by all the world's fossil fuel
energy companies and by major fossil fuel producing countries is now about</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">2,795 gigatons---nearly five times the
amount we could ever safely burn.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">
</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">That means, in order for civilization to survive, the world's
governments must either cajole or coerce the owners of that carbon to leave 80%
of everything they own in the ground---and walk away from it forever.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> It's
hard to put an exact price on that hoard of carbon, but its estimated worth is
between ten and twenty trillion dollars.
Has there been any occasion in all history where the wealthiest, most
powerful class on the planet has been asked to walk away from an asset of that
size? According to Hayes,
there has been only one such event----when the American abolitionists demanded
that southern planters free their slaves. It is distasteful to think of slaves as "assets," but that's
what the civil war was about;
whether slaves were people or property. And as property, their value exceeded the combined
worth of every railroad, bank, and factory in the country. Yet the
abolitionists did eventually free those slaves, but only after a long and
bloody civil war. This is not
going to be easy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> You
may be tempted to assume that the energy companies have so much wealth that
even with 80% of it gone, they would still be obscenely rich----but you would
assume wrong. Oil companies have a
lot of wealth, but they also have a lot of debt. The debts are secured against the assets, but the biggest
share of the assets are proven reserves. The day it becomes illegal to drill or
dig more carbon, the value of those carbon assets goes away, as does the value of the infrastructure
built to process that carbon.
But the mountain of debt stays, and every coal and oil company in the
world becomes insolvent. At that
point, all their employees are laid off forever, from the CEO down to every drill-rig worker. And when they return home,
jobless, they would return to permanent ghost towns, because everyone else living
in the same region would be laid off for the same reason.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> So it is understandable why oil industry
people will resist all attempts to force them to act rationally. There are only
two choices. In one case, we
continue to burn carbon, which destroys the planet and turns our lives into a
living hell if we survive at all. In the other case, we ban carbon, which just turns
oil workers' lives into a living hell. With such a choice, you can see why oil industry people will
cling to the insane hope that we can go on burning carbon. An insane hope is better than no
hope at all.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Besides
comparing the abandonment of carbon to the abandonment of slavery in terms of
absolute asset loss, Hayes also makes another comparison. When something starts
to become more profitable, everyone joins the parade to cheer for it. At the time of the American
Revolution, no one really defended
slavery. Everyone agreed that we
were stuck with it, but no one really liked it. Patrick Henry, a Virginia slave holder, called slavery an
"abominable practice."
Richard Henry Lee, also a Virginian, called the slave trade "an iniquitous and disgraceful
traffic," and introduced a
bill in 1759 to end it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> But
in the early 19th century, because of the cotton boom, slavery suddenly became
much more profitable. Between 1805
and 1860, the price of a slave
increased from $300 to $750, and
the number of slaves increased 400%. And as slavery became more profitable, everyone started finding something to
like about it. By 1837, John
C. Calhoun claimed that slavery was not an evil, but a positive good, and
should be expanded. One Southern social theorist, George Fitzhugh, said,
"Our negroes are not only better off as to physical comfort than free
laborers, but their moral condition is better..... They are the happiest, and, in some sense, the freest people
in the world." No
matter how bad something is, when it begins making a lot of money, there will
be no shortage of people to sing its praises. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> As
shale oil production has recently become practical, the continued burning of carbon is starting to be rehabilitated
from "a horrible but necessary evil" to "a celebrated boon for
all." Just as the United
States before the Civil War was having a "slavery boom," the U.S. is now having a carbon
boom. Because of both deep
water oil and gas and shale oil and gas, the U.S. is once again becoming a net
exporter of oil. It will soon
surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer and Russia as the
world's largest natural gas producer.
Of course, this situation is temporary. Unlike conventional wells which can pump for 30 or 40
years, the shale wells are tapping
very shallow formations, and whether they even last long enough to return the
rather considerable cost of drilling is still an open question.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> As
recently as 25 years ago, no one
was really defending our continued reliance on fossil fuel, not even
conservative Republicans. Hayes
quotes several Republicans on this issue: Dan Quayle, in 1988 said, "The greenhouse effect is an
important environmental issue.
It's important for us to get the data in, to see what alternatives we have to fossil fuels." And in 1989, Newt Gingrich was
one of 25 Republican co-sponsors of the Global Warming Prevention Act, which
held that "the Earth's atmosphere is being changed at an unprecedented
rate by pollutants resulting from human activities." In 1990, George H. W. Bush said,
"We all know that human activities are changing the atmosphere in
unexpected and in unprecedented ways." And even in 2005, George W. Bush said, "It's now
recognized that the surface of the earth is warmer, and that an increase in
greenhouse gases caused by humans is contributing to the problem." In 2008, John McCain's platform
included a cap and trade bill. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> The
reason that even conservatives were ready to abandon oil then is that it
appeared that oil had already abandoned us. As our own domestic production of oil declined, we
were importing increasing amounts from other countries, at ever increasing prices.
We paid higher and higher prices at the pumps, but the oil companies themselves
made little profit, because they were being price-squeezed by the producer
states who supplied the crude. So
continued reliance on oil wasn't going to benefit anyone. It was like a ball and chain around our ankle. There would be no
economic freedom in our future unless we could break free from our dependence
on oil and free from the despised price gougers who supplied our crude. <br />
But
with the development of fracking, we have, at least temporarily, a source of
oil that could make us net exporters of oil. (Whoopee! Now we get to be the despised price gougers) That changed the tone of the
debate. In 2008, the same year
that McCain included a cap and trade plank, Sara Palin was leading a rally of
people chanting "Drill, baby drill!" After the election, McCain dropped support of his own
bill, and in a South Carolina primary, Tea Partiers defeated a conservative
incumbent for refusing to deny climate science. Gingrich repudiated his acceptance of climate science and totally
embraced denialism. According to Hayes, denialism is now the official Republican
line. It's not just the money to be made from selling all that oil or the
influence of the powerful interests that own it. Washington's "Arm Chair Imperialists" are
now beginning to dream about using "The Oil Weapon." The oil interests intend to corrupt our political system with
every billion they have, to insure that no one tries to stop them from wrecking
the planet. And of course, the
Supreme Court has found unconstitutional any attempt to restrict or discourage such
corruption.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Not
only do the energy companies intend to burn all of the known reserves, they are
still spending money on exploration.
This is their way of saying, "After we have burned 5 times the
amount required to wreck the
planet, if there is anything left of it, we plan to burn some more." At this point in his article, Hayes
explains that if you are not totally depressed by now, then you didn't quite understand
what he has told you. But Hayes sees some reason for hope. For one, whereas slaves could generate
cash flow with very little capital investment, carbon assets require massive
investment---perhaps more than will ever be returned in operating profit. As a result, most oil stocks pay only
fairly modest dividends. If
shareholders begin to demand that cash be used for dividends instead of exploration, that could change
everything. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Hayes
doesn't mention it, but fracking and horizontal drilling, the two technologies
needed to recover shale oil, are so God-awful expensive that unless the oil is
sold for a very high price, the
operation doesn't even break even.
Last year a couple of major oil companies began selling off their Bakken
shale leases because they were not sure they could ever make a profit no matter
how much oil they found. So there
is an alternative explanation to why oil majors are still spending money on
exploration. Supposing that the
shale oil recovery is yielding no profit at all, but has a slight operating
loss, a loss covered by creative accounting and increased borrowing.
The borrowing is covered by the company's assets---in the form of proven
reserves. As long as "proven
reserves" increase every year, then increased borrowing is justified, and
the theoretical net worth of the company continues to increase, justifying
increased stock value. But as soon as anyone admits that not all this oil in
the ground will ever be pumped, then the game is over. To stop exploring would be to admit
this. So the whole thing
begins to look like an asset bubble. Am I the only one to think this is an asset
bubble? No. Last year Al Gore and David Blood co-authored
an article in the Oct 29, 2013 <u>Wall
Street Journal</u> entitled "The Coming Carbon Asset Bubble," which warned that all fossil fuel
investment could be considered an asset bubble. Unless the profit made from
selling just the oil and coal that will actually be extracted is sufficient to
retire the outstanding debt, then none of these companies have any net worth
whatsoever. Sooner or later, all
bubbles collapse. And when this
one collapses, the "drill baby drill" crowd will have some egg on its
face, and sustainable energy will be celebrated again. So, what can we do until
then?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> First,
continue to push for more wind and solar power. Not just at the back yard
level, but at the power company level.
Having a gazzillion-dollar power company on your side helps. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Second,
continue to oppose coal-fired power.
Oppose the licensing of new plants; demand the retirement of old
plants. This will cause a lot of natural-gas-powered
gas-turbine power plants to be built.
This is a good thing. These
plants have much less carbon emission than coal, and when we get switched to
mostly wind power, we will need these things as a backup, because the wind does
not always blow. Gas turbines are the ideal backup because wind can increase or
decrease very quickly, so you need a countercyclical source that can crank up
or shut down fast enough to match it. Only a gas turbine can do this. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Third,
continue to fight for fuel efficiency standards, not just for cars, but for
everything.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Show your support by buying a new,
high-efficiency car if you can afford it. Depending on what you trade in, the
money you save in fuel might make the payments if you do a lot of driving.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Fourth, push for more mass transit---mainly the
kinds that can run on electricity. Because electricity is the kind of energy we
are going to have. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<!--EndFragment-->The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-16356433870400021242014-03-28T16:22:00.002-05:002014-03-28T16:22:25.688-05:00What Upward Mobility?
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">Recently,
a team of economists led by Harvard's Raj Chetty released a report claiming
that upward economic mobility in America </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">has not really declined in the last 30 years. Robert Kuttner,
writing in the Mar/Apr issue of </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><u>The American Prospect</u></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">, and James
Surowiecki, writing in the Mar 3, 2014 issue of </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><u>The New Yorker</u></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"> both
commented on this report.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">Kuttner
and Surowiecki </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">both make the same
point:</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">Yes, mobility has not
declined much in the last 30 years---because by 30 years ago it was already
nearly zero.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">In fact, although
there was considerable mobility in the late nineteenth century, by WWI most
people were destined to die in the same class they were born in.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">But until about 1973, this was no cause
for alarm. In order to improve your condition, you need not escape the class
you were born in if the standard of living </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">of
your whole class</b></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"> is rapidly rising.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">With the rise of labor unions in the 30s and 40s, </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">and the GI Bill after WWII, the American
worker gained a higher income, more access to education, and more income
security than his parents had ever dreamed of---and he did it mostly without
leaving the class he was born in.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">You do not need to change busses to get to where you wish to go, if the
bus you are on is already taking you there.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But
since about 1973,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>real<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>wages in America have been stagnant or
falling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the post-war era up
until 1973, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>there were huge gains
in productivity, and this productivity gain was always shared with the workers <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>whose sweat and genius made it
possible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But since that time,
there has been a ruthless war against the middle class. The elites---<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Organized Money</i> is a better term---began
breaking unions, and taking over media outlets and pouring money into political
campaigns, with the aim of electing anti-union, right-wing puppets who would
pass anti-union legislation, appoint anti-union, right-wing judges and sign
trade treaties allowing corporations to sidestep American labor standards by
transferring production to low wage countries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Just the threat of such a transfer allows corporations to
extort drastic wage concessions, whether the plant is moved or not.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result, the good, middle-class job
is becoming a thing of the past.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There are very few decent employment prospects left in manufacturing,
mining, or agriculture in the U.S. today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>When you kill the bottom of the food chain, you kill the whole
ecosystem. And<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>historically, good
union jobs in these sectors were the foundation of the "food chain"
that sustained the whole middle class.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>There
have been massive productivity gains since 1973, but none of it has been shared
with labor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If it had been, the
U.S. median household income level would be about $82,000 per year, and not
$42,000.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At that wage, the class
mobility question would become moot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>With a median household income of $82,000,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>most people would have a livable wage where they're at. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<!--EndFragment-->The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-9057358855585260712014-03-05T11:23:00.000-06:002014-03-05T12:33:14.668-06:00Pipeline Projects Abandoned In the Tuesday, March 4, 2014 issue of the <u><a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB20001424052702304071004579407140444547268?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB20001424052702304071004579407140444547268.html">Wall Street Journal,</a></u> was an article entitled <i>Who Wants an</i> <i>Oil Pipeline? Trains Bring in More Money.</i> The article, by Alison Sider, reports that <b>Koch Pipeline</b> Company walked away from a pipeline project because of "tepid interest" form oil producers. And a year earlier, <b>Oneok Partners</b> canceled a planed line from North Dakota to Oklahoma for the same reasons. The oil producers, at least for the present, prefer to just keep shipping by rail.<br />
Rail costs much more per barrel to ship oil than any pipelines. But a pipeline, once built, locks the builder into shipping to only one destination. And all the oil producers who have signed long term contracts agreeing to use that pipeline are locked into that same destination. But markets can shift over time---in fact, they can shift from day to day. But when you load oil into a railcar, you can send it to any place on the continent.<br />
The proposed proposed pipelines would all ship oil from the Midwest to Texas and Louisiana, where refineries are already oversupplied with oil from local shale. North Dakota oil is low sulphur oil, of the same type that East Coast refiners are paying $104 per barrel to import. Yet Midwest producers received only $74 per barrel in January. So even though pipelines ship oil more cheaply than rail, having a pipeline to Texas is not what the oil producers really want right now. They don't want to ship to Texas--they want to ship to New Jersey, and will find it profitable to do so, even at a rail freight cost of $5-$15 per barrel. And next year, they may wish to ship somewhere else. But no new pipelines will be built without oil producers signing long term contracts to commit to shipping a specific volume for a specific number of years. The article quotes one analyst as saying, "Making a pipeline volume commitment is like getting married. Shipping by rail is like a one night stand........"<br />
<br />The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-26405510180695028002014-01-25T09:11:00.000-06:002014-01-25T09:20:16.588-06:00Why is Propane Price Higher? The short answer is that we have had a lot of cold weather, and supplies are falling short of demand. A more complete answer is that we went into winter this year with much lower stocks of propane than usual-- because more had already been used up for grain drying than usual. This was true because, since the corn had been planted late, the point in the life cycle of the plants where the grain is ripe and the plant starts to dry down did not occur until well after the hot, dry days of late summer were past. The reason that the corn had been planted late is that in 2013, we had a very, very wet spring. So, a wet spring one year equals high propane price the following winter. For a better perspective , see The Cat's earlier post: <a href="http://runciblecatsbazaar.blogspot.com/2013/11/do-we-eat-petroleum.html">Do We Eat Petroleum?</a>The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7628283858253888480.post-82340397268554525722014-01-16T14:15:00.000-06:002014-01-16T14:15:57.962-06:00Agreement About Inequality There was an interesting article in the Jan 15, 2014 issue of the <a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB10001424052702304049704579320663685569006.html?mod=BOL_article_full_more"><u>Wall Street Journal</u>,</a> by Wm. A. Galston entitled "Where right and Left Agree on Inequality. I read the news pages of WSJ, but I usually don't bother with the editorial section. Whereas the news pages still contain useful information about the price and availability of strategic things like oil, corn, and copper, the editorial section is generally a wellspring of pompous, ultra-right-wing nonsense---a sort of "Fox News for the materially blessed." When you do find something worth reading there, it is usually a guest opinion by some famous person responding to some outrage which WSJ printed a few days before. But every once and a while, a article appears there that actually makes sense. <br />
Whether you consider yourself, left-wing, right-wing, or something else, you should read this brief article, if you are concerned about inequality. If you are not concerned about inequality, then you are an idiot, because besides being a moral outrage, inequality is bad for business. The World Bank now says that the principle reason for the sluggish recovery is inequality. Put simply, sales are slow because though there is a lot of cash in the economy, the people who need to buy anything are not the people who have any of it. The Cathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09979409634875670482noreply@blogger.com0