Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Does Skyscraper Boom Predict Recession?
According to an AP article in Jan 11, 2012 Waterloo Courier, Barclays Capital has issued a report claiming that it has uncovered an "unhealthy correlation" between skyscraper construction and recession, that goes back 140 years. Building booms are a sign of excess credit, and skyscraper construction coincides with easy credit, rising land prices, and excessive optimism. But these are the same factors which produce speculative bubbles which result in a crash. So by the time the skyscraper is finished, the economy has slipped into recession. Right now China and India are having a skyscraper boom, which could mean their economies are heading for a crash.
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