Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Jobs Picture Better Than it Looks.

    In the Monday, April 2, 2012 issue of The Wall Street Journal, there was an article by Justin Lahart entitled U.S. Jobs Rebound Still Leaves Work for Ben Bernanke.  (I'd provide a link, but you'd just hit a pay wall.) In the U.S.,  recently published statistics on total jobs have showed significant improvement over the last year.  The Labor Department payroll survey says that  the U.S. has added an average of 245,000 jobs in each of the last three months.  That same survey says that we have added 2,000,000 jobs, over the last year.  The payroll survey is a survey of 6% of U.S. employers.   But this survey only questions those employers who are well established--it overlooks start-ups that are often an important part of any recovery.  A lesser known, but probably more accurate survey is the Household Survey.   In this poll, they simply ask a small number (60,000) of householders to tell them who in that house is working.   According to the household survey, there have been not 2 million, but 3.2 million jobs added in the last year.   And in any previous recovery, the Household Survey has turned out to be closer to the real picture. So while the official job picture is finally starting to look good, the real picture is probably even better.   And remember, we have 4 years of pent up demand.

1 comment:

  1. thanks for pointing out a ray of hope. the drums of war are what awaits if we do not get this economic engine turnin for the average person. It is how the average person does that forcast the collasp of any empire

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