Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Does Skyscraper Boom Predict Recession?

     According to an AP article in Jan 11, 2012 Waterloo Courier,  Barclays Capital has issued a report claiming that it has uncovered an "unhealthy correlation" between skyscraper construction and recession, that goes back 140 years. Building booms are a sign of excess credit, and skyscraper construction coincides  with easy credit, rising land prices, and excessive optimism.  But these are the same factors which produce speculative bubbles which result in a crash.  So by the time the skyscraper is finished, the economy has slipped into recession.  Right now China and India are having a skyscraper boom, which could mean their economies are heading for a crash.

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